Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold 5star, while the market favors 1WIN (98%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs 5star (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games Playoffs
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold 5star (25%) · 5star at 1.6¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
5star
8
5star 25%
$7.8K
$1.1K
9¢ → 1.6¢
-82% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
Avoid5star at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors 1WIN 98%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on 5star. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LL lllllllIlllCTR | 5staravg 9¢ | $2.9K | $5.1K | +$964.52 | 54% 302-256 (558) |
PN pnhct | 1WINavg 87.3¢ | $984.19 | $1.1K | +$106.72 | 53% 511-447 (958) |
 RN1 | 1WINavg 86.8¢ | $814.62 | $787.69 | -$26.92 | 54% 56601-48769 (105370) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | 1WINavg 87.4¢ | $308.16 | $328.45 | +$20.29 | 52% 13785-12588 (26373) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | 1WINavg 89.5¢ | $201.11 | $188.76 | -$12.35 | 36% 15601-27545 (43146) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | 1WINavg 86.8¢ | $82.75 | $93.06 | +$10.32 | 48% 2393-2622 (5015) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | 5staravg 9.1¢ | $49.47 | $86.83 | +$10.22 | 49% 7973-8309 (16282) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | 1WINavg 86¢ | $48.31 | $47.21 | +$2.34 | 39% 418-667 (1085) |
Invested
$2,890.79
Value
$5.1K
PnL
+$964.52
Record
54%
302-256 (558)
Invested
$984.19
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$106.72
Record
53%
511-447 (958)
RN1Invested
$814.62
Value
$787.69
PnL
-$26.92
Record
54%
56601-48769 (105370)
Invested
$308.16
Value
$328.45
PnL
+$20.29
Record
52%
13785-12588 (26373)
Invested
$201.11
Value
$188.76
PnL
-$12.35
Record
36%
15601-27545 (43146)
Invested
$82.75
Value
$93.06
PnL
+$10.32
Record
48%
2393-2622 (5015)
Invested
$49.47
Value
$86.83
PnL
+$10.22
Record
49%
7973-8309 (16282)
Invested
$48.31
Value
$47.21
PnL
+$2.34
Record
39%
418-667 (1085)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.