England Lions Tour of West Indies Unofficial ODIs: West Indies A vs England Lions
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold England Lions (40%) · England Lions at 80¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 18
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Neutral
England Lions
5
England Lions 40%
$2.2K
-$108.68
83.1¢ → 79.5¢
-4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralEngland Lions at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on England Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 tradecraft | England Lionsavg 80¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$33.61 | 20% 150-617 (767) |
38 38791873984189 | England Lionsavg 87.2¢ | $1.1K | $852.9 | -$76.48 | 48% 1363-1480 (2843) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | West Indies Aavg 23¢ | $39.41 | $37.69 | -$1.71 | 53% 5727-5123 (10850) |
 alpheclabs2CTR<$100 | West Indies Aavg 18¢ | $23.4 | $25.96 | +$2.56 | 45% 116-143 (259) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | West Indies Aavg 20.8¢ | $10.04 | $10.6 | +$0.56 | 51% 1843-1797 (3640) |
tradecraftInvested
$1,307.43
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$33.61
Record
20%
150-617 (767)
Invested
$1,069.38
Value
$852.9
PnL
-$76.48
Record
48%
1363-1480 (2843)
Invested
$39.41
Value
$37.69
PnL
-$1.71
Record
53%
5727-5123 (10850)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100Invested
$23.4
Value
$25.96
PnL
+$2.56
Record
45%
116-143 (259)
Invested
$10.04
Value
$10.6
PnL
+$0.56
Record
51%
1843-1797 (3640)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.