England Lions Tour of West Indies Unofficial ODIs: West Indies A vs England Lions

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold England Lions (63%) · England Lions at 96¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 16

West Indies A4¢England Lions96¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

England Lions

Consensus Traders

England Lions 63%

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

77.8¢ → 96.2¢

+24% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralEngland Lions at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

England Lions

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

West Indies A4%

England Lions96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

England Lions5 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares9,368

Combined PnL+$1.7K

West Indies A3 traders

Total Value$88.38

Total Shares2,356

Combined PnL-$49.79

England Lions — 63%West Indies A — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on England Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperEngland Lions 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWest Indies A 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000England Lions 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tradecraft	England Lionsavg 75.1¢	$4.7K	$4.6K	+$1.0K	19% 42-180 (222)
MI midwicket72	England Lionsavg 66¢	$1.5K	$2.1K	+$677.71	— 0-2 (2)
PA pagliacci4	England Lionsavg 95.8¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	+$20.38	0% 0-22 (22)
38 38791873984189	England Lionsavg 73.5¢	$237.91	$233.55	-$1.58	49% 383-404 (787)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	West Indies Aavg 4.1¢	$59.01	$78.85	+$19.84	38% 93-154 (247)
dips.<$100	England Lionsavg 96.3¢	$48.15	$48.1	+$0.2	46% 90-106 (196)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	West Indies Aavg 29.9¢	$67.78	$7.49	-$60.3	48% 32-35 (67)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	West Indies Aavg 23.4¢	$12.52	$2.04	-$9.33	52% 242-224 (466)

tradecraft

England Lions

Invested

$4,741.28

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

19%

42-180 (222)

midwicket72

England Lions

Invested

$1,460.78

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$677.71

Record

—

0-2 (2)

pagliacci4

England Lions

Invested

$2,153.23

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$20.38

Record

0-22 (22)

38791873984189

England Lions

Invested

$237.91

Value

$233.55

PnL

-$1.58

Record

49%

383-404 (787)

cigarettesCTR<$100

West Indies A

Invested

$59.01

Value

$78.85

PnL

+$19.84

Record

38%

93-154 (247)

dips.<$100

England Lions

Invested

$48.15

Value

$48.1

PnL

+$0.2

Record

46%

90-106 (196)

GaditimaCTR<$100

West Indies A

Invested

$67.78

Value

$7.49

PnL

-$60.3

Record

48%

32-35 (67)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

West Indies A

Invested

$12.52

Value

$2.04

PnL

-$9.33

Record

52%

242-224 (466)

Research grade

NeutralEngland Lions at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

England Lions

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on England Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperEngland Lions 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWest Indies A 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000England Lions 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that England Lions wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.3%

96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.