Victoria Women T20I: Uganda Women vs USA Women

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Uganda Women (33%) · Uganda Women at 75¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 19

Uganda Women75¢USA Women25¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Uganda Women

Consensus Traders

Uganda Women 33%

Total Value

$11.4K

Combined PnL

-$519.72

Smart Money Entry

75.8¢ → 74.5¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUganda Women at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Uganda Women

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Uganda Women75%

USA Women26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Uganda Women3 traders

Total Value$10.4K

Total Shares14,645

Combined PnL-$732.36

USA Women6 traders

Total Value$979.29

Total Shares3,657

Combined PnL+$212.64

Uganda Women — 33%USA Women — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Uganda Women. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUganda Women 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Uganda Women 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
alpheclabs2	Uganda Womenavg 75.3¢	$5.3K	$5.1K	-$232.73	44% 159-200 (359)
TO topdogbigboi	Uganda Womenavg 75.1¢	$4.2K	$3.8K	-$395.89	37% 470-810 (1280)
dips.	Uganda Womenavg 79.6¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$103.74	45% 470-582 (1052)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	USA Womenavg 20¢	$373.59	$523.03	+$149.44	41% 62-88 (150)
probabilityCTR	USA Womenavg 22.1¢	$370.79	$426.99	+$56.2	44% 11-14 (25)
MI mishipolisCTR<$100	USA Womenavg 22.5¢	$45	$25.5	+$6.5	41% 78-112 (190)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	USA Womenavg 22¢	$1.85	$2.14	+$0.29	51% 2328-2218 (4546)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	USA Womenavg 22¢	$1.1	$1.28	+$0.17	50% 1105-1107 (2212)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	USA Womenavg 24¢	$0.32	$0.35	+$0.03	53% 5995-5369 (11364)

alpheclabs2

Uganda Women

Invested

$5,290.5

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$232.73

Record

44%

159-200 (359)

topdogbigboi

Uganda Women

Invested

$4,189.26

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$395.89

Record

37%

470-810 (1280)

dips.

Uganda Women

Invested

$1,632.39

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$103.74

Record

45%

470-582 (1052)

mouzsynapseCTR

USA Women

Invested

$373.59

Value

$523.03

PnL

+$149.44

Record

41%

62-88 (150)

probabilityCTR

USA Women

Invested

$370.79

Value

$426.99

PnL

+$56.2

Record

44%

11-14 (25)

mishipolisCTR<$100

USA Women

Invested

$45

Value

$25.5

PnL

+$6.5

Record

41%

78-112 (190)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

USA Women

Invested

$1.85

Value

$2.14

PnL

+$0.29

Record

51%

2328-2218 (4546)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

USA Women

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.28

PnL

+$0.17

Record

50%

1105-1107 (2212)

cigarettesCTR<$100

USA Women

Invested

$0.32

Value

$0.35

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

5995-5369 (11364)

Research grade

NeutralUganda Women at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Uganda Women

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Uganda Women. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUganda Women 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Uganda Women 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Uganda Women wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.