Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Rwanda Women, while the market favors Uganda Women (55%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Victoria Women T20I: Uganda Women vs Rwanda Women

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Rwanda Women (63%) · Rwanda Women at 46¢ · $96 held · ends Nov 21

Uganda Women55¢Rwanda Women45¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rwanda Women

Consensus Traders

Rwanda Women 63%

Total Value

$96.22

Combined PnL

$9.17

Research grade

NeutralRwanda Women at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rwanda Women

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Uganda Women 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Uganda Women55%

Rwanda Women46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rwanda Women5 traders

Total Value$54.83

Total Shares122

Combined PnL+$8.31

Uganda Women3 traders

Total Value$41.39

Total Shares76

Combined PnL+$0.85

Rwanda Women — 63%Uganda Women — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Rwanda Women. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRwanda Women 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Rwanda Women 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Rwanda Womenavg 35.3¢	$17.7	$22.58	+$4.87	37% 1015-1693 (2708)
MO mouzsynapse<$100	Uganda Womenavg 57¢	$14.71	$14.58	-$0.13	40% 115-174 (289)
poshposh<$100	Uganda Womenavg 51¢	$13.9	$14.58	+$0.68	48% 1089-1166 (2255)
probabilityCTR<$100	Rwanda Womenavg 34.8¢	$10.17	$13.14	+$2.97	52% 30-28 (58)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Uganda Womenavg 52.2¢	$11.93	$12.23	+$0.3	50% 2502-2460 (4962)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Rwanda Womenavg 44.7¢	$8.34	$8.39	+$0.05	49% 3800-3964 (7764)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Rwanda Womenavg 40.6¢	$5.8	$6.22	+$0.42	30% 331-772 (1103)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Rwanda Womenavg 45¢	$4.5	$4.5	+$0	48% 2063-2220 (4283)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Rwanda Women

Invested

$17.7

Value

$22.58

PnL

+$4.87

Record

37%

1015-1693 (2708)

mouzsynapse<$100

Uganda Women

Invested

$14.71

Value

$14.58

PnL

-$0.13

Record

40%

115-174 (289)

poshposh<$100

Uganda Women

Invested

$13.9

Value

$14.58

PnL

+$0.68

Record

48%

1089-1166 (2255)

probabilityCTR<$100

Rwanda Women

Invested

$10.17

Value

$13.14

PnL

+$2.97

Record

52%

30-28 (58)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Uganda Women

Invested

$11.93

Value

$12.23

PnL

+$0.3

Record

50%

2502-2460 (4962)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Rwanda Women

Invested

$8.34

Value

$8.39

PnL

+$0.05

Record

49%

3800-3964 (7764)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Rwanda Women

Invested

$5.8

Value

$6.22

PnL

+$0.42

Record

30%

331-772 (1103)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Rwanda Women

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2063-2220 (4283)

Research grade

NeutralRwanda Women at 46%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Rwanda Women

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Uganda Women 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Rwanda Women. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRwanda Women 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Rwanda Women 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rwanda Women wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.