Victoria Women T20I: Uganda Women vs Rwanda Women
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Uganda Women (50%) · Uganda Women at 61¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Uganda Women
6
Uganda Women 50%
$2.8K
$197.01
61.5¢ → 61¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUganda Women at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 alpheclabs2 | Uganda Womenavg 61.3¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$118.26 | 46% 104-122 (226) |
CI cigarettes | Uganda Womenavg 63.7¢ | $220.75 | $222.45 | +$1.69 | 53% 5614-5046 (10660) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR | Rwanda Womenavg 38¢ | $190 | $195 | +$5 | 27% 142-383 (525) |
PA pauleta23CTR | Rwanda Womenavg 37¢ | $101.75 | $137.57 | +$35.82 | 27% 174-464 (638) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR | Rwanda Womenavg 36.7¢ | $100 | $136.13 | +$36.13 | 19% 91-398 (489) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Uganda Womenavg 61¢ | $6.71 | $6.82 | +$0.11 | 46% 225-259 (484) |
alpheclabs2Invested
$1,957.6
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$118.26
Record
46%
104-122 (226)
Invested
$220.75
Value
$222.45
PnL
+$1.69
Record
53%
5614-5046 (10660)
Invested
$190
Value
$195
PnL
+$5
Record
27%
142-383 (525)
Invested
$101.75
Value
$137.57
PnL
+$35.82
Record
27%
174-464 (638)
Invested
$100
Value
$136.13
PnL
+$36.13
Record
19%
91-398 (489)
Invested
$6.71
Value
$6.82
PnL
+$0.11
Record
46%
225-259 (484)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.