Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Thailand Women, while the market favors Zimbabwe Women (94%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

ICC Women's Emerging Nations Trophy T20s: Thailand Women vs Zimbabwe Women

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Thailand Women (64%) · Thailand Women at 6.5¢ · $850 held · ends Nov 22

Thailand Women7¢Zimbabwe Women93¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thailand Women

Consensus Traders

Thailand Women 64%

Total Value

$850.12

Combined PnL

-$181.83

Smart Money Entry

44.3¢ → 6.5¢

-85% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidThailand Women at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thailand Women

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Zimbabwe Women 94%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thailand Women7%

Zimbabwe Women94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thailand Women7 traders

Total Value$518.86

Total Shares1,645

Combined PnL-$275.23

Zimbabwe Women4 traders

Total Value$331.26

Total Shares367

Combined PnL+$93.4

Thailand Women — 64%Zimbabwe Women — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Thailand Women. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrZimbabwe Women 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Thailand Women 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tradecraftCTR	Thailand Womenavg 71.7¢	$254.05	$258.55	+$4.5	34% 444-880 (1324)
dips.	Zimbabwe Womenavg 48.8¢	$121.96	$233.75	+$111.79	48% 1270-1353 (2623)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Thailand Womenavg 50.5¢	$238.45	$140.28	-$98.16	39% 1502-2375 (3877)
NO NotJumpCTR	Thailand Womenavg 50¢	$183.75	$73.93	-$4.76	50% 1068-1058 (2126)
LR lryyy<$100	Zimbabwe Womenavg 90¢	$92.98	$70.12	-$22.86	45% 942-1132 (2074)
MI midwicket72CTR	Thailand Womenavg 30.4¢	$222.39	$25.58	-$196.81	33% 11-22 (33)
SM smithagent<$100	Zimbabwe Womenavg 73.4¢	$27.31	$24.5	+$5.81	46% 854-997 (1851)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Thailand Womenavg 52¢	$10.74	$11.36	+$0.62	50% 2799-2804 (5603)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Thailand Womenavg 10¢	$13.43	$8.51	+$19.74	49% 4560-4822 (9382)
SU suntori<$100	Zimbabwe Womenavg 23.4¢	$4.23	$2.89	-$1.33	46% 3106-3639 (6745)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Thailand Womenavg 10¢	$1	$0.65	-$0.35	48% 2465-2697 (5162)

tradecraftCTR

Thailand Women

Invested

$254.05

Value

$258.55

PnL

+$4.5

Record

34%

444-880 (1324)

dips.

Zimbabwe Women

Invested

$121.96

Value

$233.75

PnL

+$111.79

Record

48%

1270-1353 (2623)

topdogbigboiCTR

Thailand Women

Invested

$238.45

Value

$140.28

PnL

-$98.16

Record

39%

1502-2375 (3877)

NotJumpCTR

Thailand Women

Invested

$183.75

Value

$73.93

PnL

-$4.76

Record

50%

1068-1058 (2126)

lryyy<$100

Zimbabwe Women

Invested

$92.98

Value

$70.12

PnL

-$22.86

Record

45%

942-1132 (2074)

midwicket72CTR

Thailand Women

Invested

$222.39

Value

$25.58

PnL

-$196.81

Record

33%

11-22 (33)

smithagent<$100

Zimbabwe Women

Invested

$27.31

Value

$24.5

PnL

+$5.81

Record

46%

854-997 (1851)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Thailand Women

Invested

$10.74

Value

$11.36

PnL

+$0.62

Record

50%

2799-2804 (5603)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Thailand Women

Invested

$13.43

Value

$8.51

PnL

+$19.74

Record

49%

4560-4822 (9382)

suntori<$100

Zimbabwe Women

Invested

$4.23

Value

$2.89

PnL

-$1.33

Record

46%

3106-3639 (6745)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Thailand Women

Invested

Value

$0.65

PnL

-$0.35

Record

48%

2465-2697 (5162)

Research grade

AvoidThailand Women at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Thailand Women

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Zimbabwe Women 94%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Thailand Women. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrZimbabwe Women 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Thailand Women 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thailand Women wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance7.8%

6.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1174.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

1274.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.