ICC Women's Emerging Nations Trophy T20s: Pakistan Women vs Netherlands Women

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Netherlands Women (58%) · Netherlands Women at 78¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 22

Pakistan Women22¢Netherlands Women78¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Netherlands Women

Consensus Traders

Netherlands Women 58%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$736.03

Smart Money Entry

37.4¢ → 78¢

+109% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNetherlands Women at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Netherlands Women

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pakistan Women22%

Netherlands Women78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Netherlands Women7 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares4,309

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Pakistan Women5 traders

Total Value$599.28

Total Shares2,245

Combined PnL-$585.54

Netherlands Women — 58%Pakistan Women — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Netherlands Women. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNetherlands Women 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Netherlands Women 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI midwicket72	Netherlands Womenavg 38.8¢	$1.6K	$2.8K	+$1.2K	33% 11-22 (33)
dips.CTR	Pakistan Womenavg 52.9¢	$630.77	$292.28	-$338.49	48% 1255-1336 (2591)
NO NotJump	Netherlands Womenavg 45.6¢	$417.81	$226.4	+$41.67	50% 1055-1041 (2096)
SM smithagentCTR	Pakistan Womenavg 50.5¢	$392.15	$190.37	-$201.78	46% 844-988 (1832)
OM omnibus-076daa	Netherlands Womenavg 21¢	$86.43	$189.65	+$103.22	46% 597-711 (1308)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Pakistan Womenavg 60.2¢	$83.18	$82.34	-$0.85	33% 441-879 (1320)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Pakistan Womenavg 57.6¢	$73.43	$28.05	-$45.38	45% 935-1121 (2056)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Netherlands Womenavg 31.2¢	$14.53	$19.33	+$4.8	49% 4528-4804 (9332)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Netherlands Womenavg 37¢	$15.54	$18.06	+$2.52	41% 687-1000 (1687)
probabilityCTR<$100	Pakistan Womenavg 69¢	$18.29	$6.24	+$0.95	50% 33-33 (66)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Netherlands Womenavg 37.5¢	$3.75	$4.6	+$0.85	48% 2449-2682 (5131)
MO mouzsynapse<$100	Netherlands Womenavg 20¢	$1.6	$3.68	+$2.08	40% 151-226 (377)

midwicket72

Netherlands Women

Invested

$1,595.12

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

33%

11-22 (33)

dips.CTR

Pakistan Women

Invested

$630.77

Value

$292.28

PnL

-$338.49

Record

48%

1255-1336 (2591)

NotJump

Netherlands Women

Invested

$417.81

Value

$226.4

PnL

+$41.67

Record

50%

1055-1041 (2096)

smithagentCTR

Pakistan Women

Invested

$392.15

Value

$190.37

PnL

-$201.78

Record

46%

844-988 (1832)

omnibus-076daa

Netherlands Women

Invested

$86.43

Value

$189.65

PnL

+$103.22

Record

46%

597-711 (1308)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Pakistan Women

Invested

$83.18

Value

$82.34

PnL

-$0.85

Record

33%

441-879 (1320)

lryyyCTR<$100

Pakistan Women

Invested

$73.43

Value

$28.05

PnL

-$45.38

Record

45%

935-1121 (2056)

Flaznorp<$100

Netherlands Women

Invested

$14.53

Value

$19.33

PnL

+$4.8

Record

49%

4528-4804 (9332)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Netherlands Women

Invested

$15.54

Value

$18.06

PnL

+$2.52

Record

41%

687-1000 (1687)

probabilityCTR<$100

Pakistan Women

Invested

$18.29

Value

$6.24

PnL

+$0.95

Record

50%

33-33 (66)

ferdinand2<$100

Netherlands Women

Invested

$3.75

Value

$4.6

PnL

+$0.85

Record

48%

2449-2682 (5131)

mouzsynapse<$100

Netherlands Women

Invested

$1.6

Value

$3.68

PnL

+$2.08

Record

40%

151-226 (377)

Research grade

NeutralNetherlands Women at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Netherlands Women

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Netherlands Women. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNetherlands Women 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Netherlands Women 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Netherlands Women wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.