Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bangladesh Women, while the market favors Pakistan Women (83%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

ICC Women's Emerging Nations Trophy T20s: Pakistan Women vs Bangladesh Women

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Bangladesh Women (67%) · Bangladesh Women at 18¢ · $836 held · ends Nov 19

Pakistan Women83¢Bangladesh Women17¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bangladesh Women

Consensus Traders

Bangladesh Women 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$835.63

Combined PnL

$43.86

Smart Money Entry

16.9¢ → 17.5¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidBangladesh Women at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bangladesh Women

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Pakistan Women 83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pakistan Women83%

Bangladesh Women18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bangladesh Women6 traders

Total Value$586.67

Total Shares3,082

Combined PnL+$26.46

Pakistan Women3 traders

Total Value$140.98

Total Shares172

Combined PnL+$17.4

Bangladesh Women — 67%Pakistan Women — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Bangladesh Women. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperBangladesh Women 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPakistan Women 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Bangladesh Women 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI midwicket72CTR	Bangladesh Womenavg 16.5¢	$516	$547.68	+$31.69	— 3-7 (10)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Bangladesh Womenavg 50¢	$183.75	$107.98	+$1.31	54% 417-355 (772)
└ Pakistan Women leg	Pakistan Womenavg 50¢	$49.15	$74.71	+$48.63
└ Bangladesh Women leg	Bangladesh Womenavg 50¢	$69.3	$33.26	-$47.32
PA pauleta23<$100	Pakistan Womenavg 66¢	$66	$79	+$13	34% 270-526 (796)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100	Pakistan Womenavg 60.8¢	$35.14	$38.77	+$3.63	42% 22-30 (52)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Pakistan Womenavg 75¢	$22.44	$23.21	+$0.78	37% 524-893 (1417)
MI mishipolisCTR<$100	Bangladesh Womenavg 21¢	$22.65	$17.2	-$5.45	42% 87-119 (206)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Bangladesh Womenavg 23.5¢	$15.52	$15.19	-$0.33	51% 2503-2397 (4900)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Bangladesh Womenavg 35.5¢	$3.55	$2.75	-$0.8	50% 1206-1230 (2436)
probabilityCTR<$100	Bangladesh Womenavg 28¢	$19.3	$2.73	+$1.43	44% 11-14 (25)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Bangladesh Womenavg 24¢	$1.2	$1.13	-$0.07	44% 372-473 (845)

midwicket72CTR

Bangladesh Women

Invested

$516

Value

$547.68

PnL

+$31.69

Record

—

3-7 (10)

NotJumpARB<$100

Bangladesh Women

Invested

$183.75

Value

$107.98

PnL

+$1.31

Record

54%

417-355 (772)

Both legs:

Pakistan Women$49.1550¢+$48.63

Bangladesh Women$69.350¢-$47.32

pauleta23<$100

Pakistan Women

Invested

$66

Value

$79

PnL

+$13

Record

34%

270-526 (796)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100

Pakistan Women

Invested

$35.14

Value

$38.77

PnL

+$3.63

Record

42%

22-30 (52)

topdogbigboi<$100

Pakistan Women

Invested

$22.44

Value

$23.21

PnL

+$0.78

Record

37%

524-893 (1417)

mishipolisCTR<$100

Bangladesh Women

Invested

$22.65

Value

$17.2

PnL

-$5.45

Record

42%

87-119 (206)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Bangladesh Women

Invested

$15.52

Value

$15.19

PnL

-$0.33

Record

51%

2503-2397 (4900)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Bangladesh Women

Invested

$3.55

Value

$2.75

PnL

-$0.8

Record

50%

1206-1230 (2436)

probabilityCTR<$100

Bangladesh Women

Invested

$19.3

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$1.43

Record

44%

11-14 (25)

lryyyCTR<$100

Bangladesh Women

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.13

PnL

-$0.07

Record

44%

372-473 (845)

Research grade

AvoidBangladesh Women at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Bangladesh Women

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Pakistan Women 83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Bangladesh Women. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperBangladesh Women 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPakistan Women 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Bangladesh Women 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bangladesh Women wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance19.3%

17.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$419.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

519.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.