India Tour of New Zealand ODIs: New Zealand vs India

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold India (67%) · India at 82¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14

New Zealand18¢India82¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

India

Consensus Traders

India 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$346.01

Smart Money Entry

65.8¢ → 82¢

+25% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralIndia at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

India

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

New Zealand18%

India82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

India6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,355

Combined PnL+$343.75

New Zealand3 traders

Total Value$296.18

Total Shares748

Combined PnL+$2.26

India — 67%New Zealand — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on India. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on New Zealand) and the top 1000 (6 on India) disagree here.

ctrIndia 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNew Zealand 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000India 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI midwicket72ARB<$100	New Zealandavg 30.3¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$89.98	54% 265-226 (491)
└ New Zealand leg	New Zealandavg 30.3¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$35.64
└ India leg	Indiaavg 60.8¢	$785.65	$911.27	+$125.62
38 38791873984189	Indiaavg 61.2¢	$1.6K	$690.26	+$323.9	48% 62067-66946 (129013)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Indiaavg 75.8¢	$371.18	$352.69	-$18.49	59% 33136-23300 (56436)
SU SunlineTicker	Indiaavg 73.2¢	$280.3	$269.78	-$10.51	60% 4637-3040 (7677)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	New Zealandavg 45.8¢	$241.59	$239.86	-$1.72	51% 2012-1944 (3956)
CI cigarettes	Indiaavg 68¢	$136	$147	+$11	53% 24131-21178 (45309)
dips.	Indiaavg 54.2¢	$94.93	$123.38	+$28.45	47% 10879-12454 (23333)
BA Bagwell306	Indiaavg 54.8¢	$98.46	$107.86	+$9.4	57% 4275-3203 (7478)
probabilityCTR<$100	New Zealandavg 40¢	$41.87	$50	+$8.13	40% 1593-2386 (3979)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	New Zealandavg 43.9¢	$10.45	$6.31	-$4.14	51% 26809-25398 (52207)

midwicket72ARB<$100

New Zealand

Invested

$2,058.58

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$89.98

Record

54%

265-226 (491)

Both legs:

New Zealand$1,272.9330.3¢-$35.64

India$785.6560.8¢+$125.62

38791873984189

India

Invested

$1,624.69

Value

$690.26

PnL

+$323.9

Record

48%

62067-66946 (129013)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

India

Invested

$371.18

Value

$352.69

PnL

-$18.49

Record

59%

33136-23300 (56436)

SunlineTicker

India

Invested

$280.3

Value

$269.78

PnL

-$10.51

Record

60%

4637-3040 (7677)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

New Zealand

Invested

$241.59

Value

$239.86

PnL

-$1.72

Record

51%

2012-1944 (3956)

cigarettes

India

Invested

$136

Value

$147

PnL

+$11

Record

53%

24131-21178 (45309)

dips.

India

Invested

$94.93

Value

$123.38

PnL

+$28.45

Record

47%

10879-12454 (23333)

Bagwell306

India

Invested

$98.46

Value

$107.86

PnL

+$9.4

Record

57%

4275-3203 (7478)

probabilityCTR<$100

New Zealand

Invested

$41.87

Value

$50

PnL

+$8.13

Record

40%

1593-2386 (3979)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

New Zealand

Invested

$10.45

Value

$6.31

PnL

-$4.14

Record

51%

26809-25398 (52207)

Research grade

NeutralIndia at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

India

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on India. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on New Zealand) and the top 1000 (6 on India) disagree here.

ctrIndia 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNew Zealand 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000India 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that India wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.