ICC Women's Emerging Nations Trophy T20s: Netherlands Women vs Thailand Women

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Netherlands Women (58%) · Netherlands Women at 72¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 19

Netherlands Women72¢Thailand Women28¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Netherlands Women

Consensus Traders

Netherlands Women 58%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

60.2¢ → 72¢

+20% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNetherlands Women at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Netherlands Women

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Netherlands Women72%

Thailand Women28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Netherlands Women7 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares8,883

Combined PnL-$351.87

Thailand Women5 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares8,186

Combined PnL-$859.25

Netherlands Women — 58%Thailand Women — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Netherlands Women. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNetherlands Women 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Netherlands Women 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI midwicket72	Netherlands Womenavg 60.2¢	$5.8K	$5.4K	-$400.55	— 3-8 (11)
NA nanir488CTR	Thailand Womenavg 40¢	$3.2K	$2.4K	-$846.32	— 8-6 (14)
poshposh	Netherlands Womenavg 62.6¢	$158.75	$163.73	+$4.98	47% 507-572 (1079)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Thailand Womenavg 33¢	$209.41	$135.53	+$2.64	54% 421-356 (777)
└ Netherlands Women leg	Netherlands Womenavg 50¢	$47.84	$73.67	+$46.09
└ Thailand Women leg	Thailand Womenavg 33¢	$88.68	$61.86	-$43.45
tradecraftARB<$100	Thailand Womenavg 62.9¢	$114.09	$84.07	-$25.22	22% 174-632 (806)
└ Netherlands Women leg	Netherlands Womenavg 59.3¢	$44.8	$53.29	+$9.64
└ Thailand Women leg	Thailand Womenavg 62.9¢	$65.64	$30.77	-$34.87
MI mishipolis	Netherlands Womenavg 53¢	$133.5	$53.37	+$22.98	42% 87-120 (207)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Thailand Womenavg 42¢	$49.74	$42.74	-$7	53% 6074-5439 (11513)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Netherlands Womenavg 42.5¢	$16.41	$28.65	+$12.24	51% 2511-2408 (4919)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Thailand Womenavg 43.2¢	$25.09	$25.96	+$0.87	51% 2047-1957 (4004)
dips.<$100	Netherlands Womenavg 72¢	$20.88	$22.33	+$1.45	45% 519-642 (1161)
LR lryyy<$100	Netherlands Womenavg 54.3¢	$9.84	$13.47	+$3.63	44% 372-476 (848)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Netherlands Womenavg 43¢	$4.3	$7.7	+$3.4	50% 1216-1232 (2448)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Thailand Womenavg 38.4¢	$19.07	$6.39	-$1.74	42% 336-456 (792)
probabilityCTR<$100	Thailand Womenavg 46¢	$10.12	$5.06	-$5.06	42% 11-15 (26)

midwicket72

Netherlands Women

Invested

$5,766.81

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$400.55

Record

—

3-8 (11)

nanir488CTR

Thailand Women

Invested

$3,218.45

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$846.32

Record

—

8-6 (14)

poshposh

Netherlands Women

Invested

$158.75

Value

$163.73

PnL

+$4.98

Record

47%

507-572 (1079)

NotJumpARB<$100

Thailand Women

Invested

$209.41

Value

$135.53

PnL

+$2.64

Record

54%

421-356 (777)

Both legs:

Netherlands Women$47.8450¢+$46.09

Thailand Women$88.6833¢-$43.45

tradecraftARB<$100

Thailand Women

Invested

$114.09

Value

$84.07

PnL

-$25.22

Record

22%

174-632 (806)

Both legs:

Netherlands Women$44.859.3¢+$9.64

Thailand Women$65.6462.9¢-$34.87

mishipolis

Netherlands Women

Invested

$133.5

Value

$53.37

PnL

+$22.98

Record

42%

87-120 (207)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Thailand Women

Invested

$49.74

Value

$42.74

PnL

-$7

Record

53%

6074-5439 (11513)

Flaznorp<$100

Netherlands Women

Invested

$16.41

Value

$28.65

PnL

+$12.24

Record

51%

2511-2408 (4919)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Thailand Women

Invested

$25.09

Value

$25.96

PnL

+$0.87

Record

51%

2047-1957 (4004)

dips.<$100

Netherlands Women

Invested

$20.88

Value

$22.33

PnL

+$1.45

Record

45%

519-642 (1161)

lryyy<$100

Netherlands Women

Invested

$9.84

Value

$13.47

PnL

+$3.63

Record

44%

372-476 (848)

ferdinand2<$100

Netherlands Women

Invested

$4.3

Value

$7.7

PnL

+$3.4

Record

50%

1216-1232 (2448)

smithagentCTR<$100

Thailand Women

Invested

$19.07

Value

$6.39

PnL

-$1.74

Record

42%

336-456 (792)

probabilityCTR<$100

Thailand Women

Invested

$10.12

Value

$5.06

PnL

-$5.06

Record

42%

11-15 (26)

Research grade

NeutralNetherlands Women at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Netherlands Women

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Netherlands Women. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNetherlands Women 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Netherlands Women 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Netherlands Women wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.