Victoria Women T20I: Namibia Women vs Uganda Women

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Uganda Women (50%) · Uganda Women at 66¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 17

Namibia Women35¢Uganda Women65¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Uganda Women

Consensus Traders

Uganda Women 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$182.99

Smart Money Entry

82.6¢ → 65.5¢

-21% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUganda Women at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Uganda Women

2 of 4 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Namibia Women35%

Uganda Women66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Uganda Women2 traders

Total Value$726

Total Shares1,047

Combined PnL-$187.39

Namibia Women2 traders

Total Value$20.71

Total Shares38

Combined PnL+$4.4

Uganda Women — 50%Namibia Women — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Uganda Women. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUganda Women 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Uganda Women 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Uganda Womenavg 83¢	$863.96	$692.19	-$171.78	22% 85-293 (378)
dips.ARB<$100	Uganda Womenavg 78.8¢	$813.9	$583.46	-$180.28	42% 189-264 (453)
└ Uganda Women leg	Uganda Womenavg 78.8¢	$627.72	$414.02	-$215.58
└ Namibia Women leg	Namibia Womenavg 38¢	$134.14	$169.44	+$35.3
tradecraftARB<$100	Uganda Womenavg 81.9¢	$389.1	$319.75	-$69.36	14% 95-564 (659)
└ Uganda Women leg	Uganda Womenavg 81.9¢	$324.34	$235.77	-$88.58
└ Namibia Women leg	Namibia Womenavg 31.2¢	$64.76	$83.98	+$19.22
CI cigarettesARB<$100	Uganda Womenavg 83¢	$59.5	$50	-$9.5	52% 5320-4824 (10144)
└ Uganda Women leg	Uganda Womenavg 83¢	$41.5	$29.75	-$11.75
└ Namibia Women leg	Namibia Womenavg 36¢	$18	$20.25	+$2.25
LR lryyy<$100	Uganda Womenavg 76¢	$49.43	$33.82	-$15.61	50% 132-132 (264)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Namibia Womenavg 50¢	$11.2	$11.2	+$0	54% 1609-1354 (2963)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Namibia Womenavg 23.5¢	$5.11	$9.51	+$4.4	50% 1387-1404 (2791)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Uganda Women

Invested

$863.96

Value

$692.19

PnL

-$171.78

Record

22%

85-293 (378)

dips.ARB<$100

Uganda Women

Invested

$813.9

Value

$583.46

PnL

-$180.28

Record

42%

189-264 (453)

Both legs:

Uganda Women$627.7278.8¢-$215.58

Namibia Women$134.1438¢+$35.3

tradecraftARB<$100

Uganda Women

Invested

$389.1

Value

$319.75

PnL

-$69.36

Record

14%

95-564 (659)

Both legs:

Uganda Women$324.3481.9¢-$88.58

Namibia Women$64.7631.2¢+$19.22

cigarettesARB<$100

Uganda Women

Invested

$59.5

Value

$50

PnL

-$9.5

Record

52%

5320-4824 (10144)

Both legs:

Uganda Women$41.583¢-$11.75

Namibia Women$1836¢+$2.25

lryyy<$100

Uganda Women

Invested

$49.43

Value

$33.82

PnL

-$15.61

Record

50%

132-132 (264)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Namibia Women

Invested

$11.2

Value

$11.2

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

1609-1354 (2963)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Namibia Women

Invested

$5.11

Value

$9.51

PnL

+$4.4

Record

50%

1387-1404 (2791)

Research grade

NeutralUganda Women at 66%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Uganda Women

2 of 4 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Uganda Women. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUganda Women 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Uganda Women 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Uganda Women wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.