Victoria Women T20I: Namibia Women vs Rwanda Women

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Rwanda Women (50%) · Rwanda Women at 95¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 19

Namibia Women6¢Rwanda Women94¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rwanda Women

Consensus Traders

Rwanda Women 50%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$65.16

Smart Money Entry

83.5¢ → 94.5¢

+13% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralRwanda Women at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rwanda Women

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Namibia Women6%

Rwanda Women95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rwanda Women7 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,102

Combined PnL+$167.26

Namibia Women7 traders

Total Value$135.55

Total Shares2,267

Combined PnL-$102.1

Rwanda Women — 50%Namibia Women — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Rwanda Women. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRwanda Women 67% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Rwanda Women 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NA nanir488	Rwanda Womenavg 95¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$10.19	— 9-6 (15)
TO topdogbigboi	Rwanda Womenavg 64.7¢	$580.42	$698.13	+$117.71	37% 527-907 (1434)
NO NotJump	Rwanda Womenavg 50¢	$183.75	$198.45	+$14.7	54% 427-363 (790)
dips.CTR	Namibia Womenavg 9.2¢	$103.52	$58.82	-$42.93	45% 526-648 (1174)
CI cigarettes<$100	Rwanda Womenavg 73.1¢	$91.86	$50.31	+$8.77	53% 6080-5448 (11528)
poshposh<$100	Rwanda Womenavg 64.8¢	$28.51	$37.81	+$9.3	47% 508-573 (1081)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Namibia Womenavg 5¢	$43.8	$33.38	+$99.99	43% 341-458 (799)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Rwanda Womenavg 45¢	$19.8	$23.31	+$3.51	51% 2054-1966 (4020)
MI mishipolisCTR<$100	Namibia Womenavg 39.2¢	$61.32	$21.92	-$39.4	42% 88-121 (209)
LR lryyy<$100	Rwanda Womenavg 72¢	$15.84	$18.92	+$3.08	44% 375-478 (853)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Namibia Womenavg 32.9¢	$136.45	$18.64	-$117.81	32% 292-618 (910)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Namibia Womenavg 26.9¢	$2.48	$1.29	-$1.19	51% 2526-2431 (4957)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Namibia Womenavg 14¢	$0.8	$0.8	+$0	47% 1541-1714 (3255)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Namibia Womenavg 29¢	$1.45	$0.7	-$0.75	50% 1226-1249 (2475)

nanir488

Rwanda Women

Invested

$1,903.75

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$10.19

Record

—

9-6 (15)

topdogbigboi

Rwanda Women

Invested

$580.42

Value

$698.13

PnL

+$117.71

Record

37%

527-907 (1434)

NotJump

Rwanda Women

Invested

$183.75

Value

$198.45

PnL

+$14.7

Record

54%

427-363 (790)

dips.CTR

Namibia Women

Invested

$103.52

Value

$58.82

PnL

-$42.93

Record

45%

526-648 (1174)

cigarettes<$100

Rwanda Women

Invested

$91.86

Value

$50.31

PnL

+$8.77

Record

53%

6080-5448 (11528)

poshposh<$100

Rwanda Women

Invested

$28.51

Value

$37.81

PnL

+$9.3

Record

47%

508-573 (1081)

smithagentCTR<$100

Namibia Women

Invested

$43.8

Value

$33.38

PnL

+$99.99

Record

43%

341-458 (799)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Rwanda Women

Invested

$19.8

Value

$23.31

PnL

+$3.51

Record

51%

2054-1966 (4020)

mishipolisCTR<$100

Namibia Women

Invested

$61.32

Value

$21.92

PnL

-$39.4

Record

42%

88-121 (209)

lryyy<$100

Rwanda Women

Invested

$15.84

Value

$18.92

PnL

+$3.08

Record

44%

375-478 (853)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Namibia Women

Invested

$136.45

Value

$18.64

PnL

-$117.81

Record

32%

292-618 (910)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Namibia Women

Invested

$2.48

Value

$1.29

PnL

-$1.19

Record

51%

2526-2431 (4957)

suntoriCTR<$100

Namibia Women

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.8

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

1541-1714 (3255)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Namibia Women

Invested

$1.45

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$0.75

Record

50%

1226-1249 (2475)

Research grade

NeutralRwanda Women at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rwanda Women

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Rwanda Women. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRwanda Women 67% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Rwanda Women 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rwanda Women wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.