ACC Men's U19 Asia Cup: Sri Lanka Under-19s vs Afghanistan Under-19s

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Afghanistan Under-19s (80%) · Afghanistan Under-19s at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 16

Sri Lanka Under-19s<1¢Afghanistan Under-19s>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Afghanistan Under-19s

Consensus Traders

Afghanistan Under-19s 80%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Entry

50.2¢ → 100¢

+99% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralAfghanistan Under-19s at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Afghanistan Under-19s

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Sri Lanka Under-19s0%

Afghanistan Under-19s100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Afghanistan Under-19s4 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares3,809

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Sri Lanka Under-19s1 trader

Total Value$2.4

Total Shares4,805

Combined PnL-$44.34

Afghanistan Under-19s — 80%Sri Lanka Under-19s — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Afghanistan Under-19s. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAfghanistan Under-19s 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrAfghanistan Under-19s 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Afghanistan Under-19s 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Afghanistan Under-19savg 49.6¢	$1.8K	$3.7K	+$1.8K	56% 39936-31549 (71485)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Afghanistan Under-19savg 48¢	$48.96	$48.93	+$3.43	52% 49502-46467 (95969)
PA pauleta23<$100	Afghanistan Under-19savg 98.2¢	$47.93	$47.91	+$0.86	65% 25736-13843 (39579)
FE ferrariChampions2026<$100	Afghanistan Under-19savg 49.9¢	$19.26	$34.79	+$15.53	46% 33777-39454 (73231)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Sri Lanka Under-19savg 1¢	$46.74	$2.4	-$44.34	51% 6925-6572 (13497)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Afghanistan Under-19s

Invested

$1,843.99

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

56%

39936-31549 (71485)

Flaznorp<$100

Afghanistan Under-19s

Invested

$48.96

Value

$48.93

PnL

+$3.43

Record

52%

49502-46467 (95969)

pauleta23<$100

Afghanistan Under-19s

Invested

$47.93

Value

$47.91

PnL

+$0.86

Record

65%

25736-13843 (39579)

ferrariChampions2026<$100

Afghanistan Under-19s

Invested

$19.26

Value

$34.79

PnL

+$15.53

Record

46%

33777-39454 (73231)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Sri Lanka Under-19s

Invested

$46.74

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$44.34

Record

51%

6925-6572 (13497)

Research grade

NeutralAfghanistan Under-19s at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Afghanistan Under-19s

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Afghanistan Under-19s. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAfghanistan Under-19s 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrAfghanistan Under-19s 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Afghanistan Under-19s 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Afghanistan Under-19s wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.