ACC Men's U19 Asia Cup: India Under-19s vs United Arab Emirates Under-19s
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold India Under-19s (100%) · India Under-19s at 98¢ · $268 held · ends Nov 17
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Neutral
India Under-19s
4
India Under-19s 100%
$267.51
$0.07
98¢ → 98¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralIndia Under-19s at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PA pauleta23 | India Under-19savg 98¢ | $189.11 | $189.11 | +$0 | 19% 97-408 (505) |
PA pagliacci4<$100 | India Under-19savg 98¢ | $43.44 | $43.44 | +$0 | 18% 7-32 (39) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | India Under-19savg 97.8¢ | $29.98 | $30.06 | +$0.07 | 40% 3001-4411 (7412) |
RL RLWG<$100 | India Under-19savg 98¢ | $4.9 | $4.9 | +$0 | 68% 1589-737 (2326) |
Invested
$189.11
Value
$189.11
PnL
+$0
Record
19%
97-408 (505)
Invested
$43.44
Value
$43.44
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
7-32 (39)
Invested
$29.98
Value
$30.06
PnL
+$0.07
Record
40%
3001-4411 (7412)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$4.9
PnL
+$0
Record
68%
1589-737 (2326)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.