Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Afghanistan Under-19s, while the market favors Bangladesh Under-19s (65%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
ACC Men's U19 Asia Cup: Bangladesh Under-19s vs Afghanistan Under-19s
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Afghanistan Under-19s (75%) · Afghanistan Under-19s at 35¢ · $155 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Afghanistan Under-19s
4
Afghanistan Under-19s 75%
1 arb excluded
$154.6
-$0.73
Research grade
NeutralAfghanistan Under-19s at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Bangladesh Under-19s 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Afghanistan Under-19s. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 tradecraftARB<$100 | Afghanistan Under-19savg 45.6¢ | $122.34 | $115.78 | -$6.55 | 51% 6326-6110 (12436) |
| └ Afghanistan Under-19s leg | Afghanistan Under-19savg 45.6¢ | $84.26 | $75.77 | -$8.49 | |
| └ Bangladesh Under-19s leg | Bangladesh Under-19savg 56.1¢ | $38.08 | $40.01 | +$1.93 | |
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100 | Afghanistan Under-19savg 43.6¢ | $32.14 | $31.06 | -$1.08 | 42% 7968-11157 (19125) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Afghanistan Under-19savg 34.4¢ | $2.2 | $2.87 | +$0.67 | 42% 1536-2145 (3681) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Afghanistan Under-19savg 47.2¢ | $3.09 | $2.68 | -$0.41 | 51% 25600-24316 (49916) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Bangladesh Under-19savg 56.6¢ | $2.12 | $2.21 | +$0.09 | 59% 32485-22926 (55411) |
tradecraftARB<$100Invested
$122.34
Value
$115.78
PnL
-$6.55
Record
51%
6326-6110 (12436)
Both legs:
Invested
$32.14
Value
$31.06
PnL
-$1.08
Record
42%
7968-11157 (19125)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.87
PnL
+$0.67
Record
42%
1536-2145 (3681)
Invested
$3.09
Value
$2.68
PnL
-$0.41
Record
51%
25600-24316 (49916)
Invested
$2.12
Value
$2.21
PnL
+$0.09
Record
59%
32485-22926 (55411)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.