Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Will the match end in a draw?
Resolved Yes. 100% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
8
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$111.98
$-1.9K
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Noavg 78.5¢ | $1.3K | — | $-1.3K | 54% 5399-4606 (10005) |
 tradecraftARB<$100 | Noavg 69.7¢ | $590.78 | $111.98 | -$942.59 | 51% 6915-6568 (13483) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 69.7¢ | $3.4K | — | -$988.82 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 50.3¢ | $56.37 | $111.98 | +$46.23 | |
 dips.CTR | Noavg 36.5¢ | $166.25 | — | -$166.25 | 48% 17808-19532 (37340) |
 probabilityCTR | Noavg 52.2¢ | $317.17 | — | -$339.06 | 38% 1810-2977 (4787) |
DV dv-pmCTR<$100 | Noavg 86.6¢ | $60.62 | — | -$62.72 | 47% 3608-4012 (7620) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | — | — | +$0 | 32% 21924-45779 (67703) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 75.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 66257-66785 (133042) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Noavg 90.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 29% 3594-8807 (12401) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Noavg 26¢ | — | — | +$0 | 32% 8607-18467 (27074) |
Invested
$1,322.78
Value
—
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
54%
5399-4606 (10005)
tradecraftARB<$100Invested
$590.78
Value
$111.98
PnL
-$942.59
Record
51%
6915-6568 (13483)
Both legs:
dips.CTRInvested
$166.25
Value
—
PnL
-$166.25
Record
48%
17808-19532 (37340)
probabilityCTRInvested
$317.17
Value
—
PnL
-$339.06
Record
38%
1810-2977 (4787)
Invested
$60.62
Value
—
PnL
-$62.72
Record
47%
3608-4012 (7620)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
21924-45779 (67703)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
66257-66785 (133042)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
3594-8807 (12401)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
8607-18467 (27074)