Will the match end in a draw?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 58¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 20

Yes42¢No58¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

-$324.35

Smart Money Entry

56.5¢ → 58¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 58%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes42%

No58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares7,072

Combined PnL-$173.73

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares5,780

Combined PnL-$150.61

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tradecraft	Noavg 56.5¢	$3.9K	$3.7K	-$173.81	26% 250-703 (953)
NA nanir488CTR	Yesavg 46¢	$2.3K	$2.1K	-$150	50% 11-11 (22)
HA HashbrownCTR	Yesavg 48¢	$191.14	$171.23	-$19.91	85% 313-54 (367)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Noavg 55.7¢	$145.91	$144.77	-$1.14	37% 657-1141 (1798)
└ No leg	Noavg 55.7¢	$78.43	$81.04	+$2.61
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 45¢	$67.48	$63.73	-$3.75
SU SunlineTickerARB<$100	Noavg 53.8¢	$95.46	$95.67	+$0.21	70% 1711-741 (2452)
└ No leg	Noavg 53.8¢	$73.77	$73.98	+$0.21
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 43¢	$21.69	$21.69	+$0
NO NotJump<$100	Noavg 55¢	$96.25	$94.5	-$1.75	53% 631-566 (1197)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Yesavg 40.6¢	$69.7	$73.91	+$4.21	43% 507-662 (1169)
CI cigarettesCTR	Yesavg 37.5¢	$120.28	$51.22	+$12.32	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
dips.CTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$36.36	$39.13	+$2.77	46% 741-864 (1605)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 56¢	$14.22	$10.76	+$1.53	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
probability<$100	Noavg 52¢	$7.7	$8	+$0.3	41% 18-26 (44)

tradecraft

Invested

$3,881.78

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$173.81

Record

26%

250-703 (953)

nanir488CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,299.99

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$150

Record

50%

11-11 (22)

HashbrownCTR

Yes

Invested

$191.14

Value

$171.23

PnL

-$19.91

Record

85%

313-54 (367)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Invested

$145.91

Value

$144.77

PnL

-$1.14

Record

37%

657-1141 (1798)

Both legs:

No$78.4355.7¢+$2.61

Yes$67.4845¢-$3.75

SunlineTickerARB<$100

Invested

$95.46

Value

$95.67

PnL

+$0.21

Record

70%

1711-741 (2452)

Both legs:

No$73.7753.8¢+$0.21

Yes$21.6943¢+$0

NotJump<$100

Invested

$96.25

Value

$94.5

PnL

-$1.75

Record

53%

631-566 (1197)

smithagentCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$69.7

Value

$73.91

PnL

+$4.21

Record

43%

507-662 (1169)

cigarettesCTR

Yes

Invested

$120.28

Value

$51.22

PnL

+$12.32

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

dips.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.36

Value

$39.13

PnL

+$2.77

Record

46%

741-864 (1605)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$14.22

Value

$10.76

PnL

+$1.53

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

probability<$100

Invested

$7.7

Value

PnL

+$0.3

Record

41%

18-26 (44)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 58%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.2%

58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$66.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

166.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.