Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Sydney Sixers, while the market favors Melbourne Renegades (53%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Big Bash League, Women: Sydney Sixers vs Melbourne Renegades

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Sydney Sixers (75%) · Sydney Sixers at 48¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 22

Sydney Sixers48¢Melbourne Renegades52¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sydney Sixers

Consensus Traders

Sydney Sixers 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

-$234.14

Smart Money Entry

57.9¢ → 47.5¢

-18% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralSydney Sixers at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sydney Sixers

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Melbourne Renegades 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Sydney Sixers48%

Melbourne Renegades53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sydney Sixers9 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares7,603

Combined PnL-$762.85

Melbourne Renegades3 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares6,051

Combined PnL+$528.71

Sydney Sixers — 75%Melbourne Renegades — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Sydney Sixers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMelbourne Renegades 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Sydney Sixers 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI midwicket72CTR	Sydney Sixersavg 57.9¢	$4.3K	$3.5K	-$768.64	33% 11-22 (33)
NA nanir488	Melbourne Renegadesavg 41.7¢	$2.5K	$3.0K	+$529.86	47% 15-17 (32)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Sydney Sixersavg 57.8¢	$284.66	$272.1	-$12.56	38% 1175-1954 (3129)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR	Sydney Sixersavg 59.8¢	$171.81	$183.91	+$12.1	50% 168-165 (333)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Melbourne Renegadesavg 50.5¢	$228.79	$129.07	-$7	51% 917-874 (1791)
└ Melbourne Renegades leg	Melbourne Renegadesavg 50.5¢	$92.75	$91.88	-$7
└ Sydney Sixers leg	Sydney Sixersavg 50¢	$37.19	$37.19	+$0
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	Sydney Sixersavg 62¢	$74.07	$73.48	-$0.6	40% 131-200 (331)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Sydney Sixersavg 46.8¢	$30.65	$33.8	+$3.15	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Melbourne Renegadesavg 49.7¢	$21.13	$20.18	-$0.94	50% 2600-2575 (5175)
dips.CTR<$100	Sydney Sixersavg 58¢	$17.4	$19.2	+$1.8	47% 1041-1174 (2215)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Sydney Sixersavg 47¢	$14.3	$15.15	+$0.85	48% 2245-2407 (4652)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Sydney Sixersavg 48¢	$5.59	$6.01	+$0.42	46% 2852-3388 (6240)
probabilityCTR<$100	Sydney Sixersavg 55¢	$3.85	$4.48	+$0.63	51% 33-32 (65)
GA GamblingAddict12345<$100	Melbourne Renegadesavg 38¢	$3.8	$3.6	-$0.2	55% 46-38 (84)

midwicket72CTR

Sydney Sixers

Invested

$4,258.34

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$768.64

Record

33%

11-22 (33)

nanir488

Melbourne Renegades

Invested

$2,499.63

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$529.86

Record

47%

15-17 (32)

topdogbigboiCTR

Sydney Sixers

Invested

$284.66

Value

$272.1

PnL

-$12.56

Record

38%

1175-1954 (3129)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR

Sydney Sixers

Invested

$171.81

Value

$183.91

PnL

+$12.1

Record

50%

168-165 (333)

NotJumpARB<$100

Melbourne Renegades

Invested

$228.79

Value

$129.07

PnL

-$7

Record

51%

917-874 (1791)

Both legs:

Melbourne Renegades$92.7550.5¢-$7

Sydney Sixers$37.1950¢+$0

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

Sydney Sixers

Invested

$74.07

Value

$73.48

PnL

-$0.6

Record

40%

131-200 (331)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Sydney Sixers

Invested

$30.65

Value

$33.8

PnL

+$3.15

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Melbourne Renegades

Invested

$21.13

Value

$20.18

PnL

-$0.94

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

dips.CTR<$100

Sydney Sixers

Invested

$17.4

Value

$19.2

PnL

+$1.8

Record

47%

1041-1174 (2215)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Sydney Sixers

Invested

$14.3

Value

$15.15

PnL

+$0.85

Record

48%

2245-2407 (4652)

suntoriCTR<$100

Sydney Sixers

Invested

$5.59

Value

$6.01

PnL

+$0.42

Record

46%

2852-3388 (6240)

probabilityCTR<$100

Sydney Sixers

Invested

$3.85

Value

$4.48

PnL

+$0.63

Record

51%

33-32 (65)

GamblingAddict12345<$100

Melbourne Renegades

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$0.2

Record

55%

46-38 (84)

Research grade

NeutralSydney Sixers at 48%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Sydney Sixers

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Melbourne Renegades 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Sydney Sixers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMelbourne Renegades 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Sydney Sixers 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sydney Sixers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.