Big Bash League, Women: Perth Scorchers vs Sydney Thunder
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Perth Scorchers (60%) · Perth Scorchers at 60¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Perth Scorchers
5
Perth Scorchers 60%
1 arb excluded
$2.9K
$31.18
42.3¢ → 59.5¢
+41% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralPerth Scorchers at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI midwicket72ARB<$100 | Sydney Thunderavg 54.3¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | -$47.66 | — 2-3 (5) |
| └ Perth Scorchers leg | Perth Scorchersavg 44¢ | $894.14 | $1.2K | +$314.63 | |
| └ Sydney Thunder leg | Sydney Thunderavg 54.3¢ | $1.4K | $1.1K | -$362.29 | |
 tradecraft | Perth Scorchersavg 42.1¢ | $565.7 | $593.61 | +$27.91 | 19% 145-607 (752) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Sydney Thunderavg 40¢ | $23.33 | $24.21 | +$0.87 | 53% 5614-5046 (10660) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Sydney Thunderavg 49¢ | $13.7 | $13.73 | +$0.03 | 51% 1779-1735 (3514) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Perth Scorchersavg 46¢ | $10 | $11.3 | +$1.3 | 27% 174-464 (638) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Perth Scorchersavg 47¢ | $9.88 | $10.94 | +$1.05 | 53% 1763-1567 (3330) |
Invested
$2,318.27
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$47.66
Record
—
2-3 (5)
Both legs:
tradecraftInvested
$565.7
Value
$593.61
PnL
+$27.91
Record
19%
145-607 (752)
Invested
$23.33
Value
$24.21
PnL
+$0.87
Record
53%
5614-5046 (10660)
Invested
$13.7
Value
$13.73
PnL
+$0.03
Record
51%
1779-1735 (3514)
Invested
$10
Value
$11.3
PnL
+$1.3
Record
27%
174-464 (638)
Invested
$9.88
Value
$10.94
PnL
+$1.05
Record
53%
1763-1567 (3330)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.