Big Bash League, Women: Melbourne Stars vs Perth Scorchers

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Melbourne Stars (67%) · Melbourne Stars at 82¢ · $35K held · ends Nov 9

Melbourne Stars82¢Perth Scorchers18¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Melbourne Stars

Consensus Traders

Melbourne Stars 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$35.2K

Combined PnL

$8.9K

Smart Money Entry

44.6¢ → 82¢

+84% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralMelbourne Stars at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Melbourne Stars

10 of 15 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Melbourne Stars82%

Perth Scorchers18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Melbourne Stars10 traders

Total Value$26.9K

Total Shares28,994

Combined PnL+$8.6K

Perth Scorchers5 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares14,089

Combined PnL+$239.41

Melbourne Stars — 67%Perth Scorchers — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI midwicket72	Melbourne Starsavg 43.1¢	$15.2K	$23.8K	+$8.6K	54% 255-218 (473)
IR IrfanyousufCTR	Perth Scorchersavg 49¢	$4.9K	$5.3K	+$401.5	50% 54-53 (107)
NO NotJump	Melbourne Starsavg 60.5¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$72.84	43% 7723-10448 (18171)
MA Mastermind290420CTR	Perth Scorchersavg 58.3¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$188.14	47% 55-63 (118)
CI cigarettesARB<$100	Perth Scorchersavg 54¢	$1.5K	$723.75	-$790.75	56% 18359-14700 (33059)
└ Perth Scorchers leg	Perth Scorchersavg 54¢	$1.2K	$393.75	-$821.25
└ Melbourne Stars leg	Melbourne Starsavg 74.9¢	$299.5	$330	+$30.5
SU SunlineTicker	Melbourne Starsavg 47¢	$470	$470	+$0	62% 4291-2628 (6919)
MO mouzsynapse	Melbourne Starsavg 43¢	$382.98	$418.61	+$35.63	37% 731-1227 (1958)
DI dips.	Melbourne Starsavg 61.7¢	$172.37	$220.32	+$49.15	47% 7295-8269 (15564)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Perth Scorchersavg 50¢	$177.62	$195.77	+$22.32	47% 2620-2921 (5541)
MI mishipolisARB<$100	Perth Scorchersavg 36.7¢	$155	$133	-$22	50% 4634-4559 (9193)
└ Melbourne Stars leg	Melbourne Starsavg 45¢	$45	$83.5	+$38.5
└ Perth Scorchers leg	Perth Scorchersavg 36.7¢	$110	$49.5	-$60.5
probabilityCTR<$100	Perth Scorchersavg 52.9¢	$71.37	$76.95	+$3.56	41% 1399-2007 (3406)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Melbourne Starsavg 45¢	$35.63	$17.82	+$1.78	51% 990-958 (1948)
PA pauleta23<$100	Melbourne Starsavg 60¢	$20	$16.57	-$3.43	66% 23615-11927 (35542)
IW iWasEnough<$100	Melbourne Starsavg 45¢	$11.22	$12.34	+$1.12	53% 8068-7281 (15349)
GA GamblingAddict12345<$100	Melbourne Starsavg 47¢	$9.39	$9.39	+$0	51% 3961-3861 (7822)
HRTrading<$100	Melbourne Starsavg 45¢	$7.56	$7.9	+$0.34	53% 6367-5753 (12120)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Perth Scorchersavg 17¢	$5.78	$5.95	+$0.17	51% 17602-16613 (34215)

midwicket72

Melbourne Stars

Invested

$15,189.97

Value

$23.8K

PnL

+$8.6K

Record

54%

255-218 (473)

IrfanyousufCTR

Perth Scorchers

Invested

$4,898.5

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$401.5

Record

50%

54-53 (107)

NotJump

Melbourne Stars

Invested

$1,977.01

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$72.84

Record

43%

7723-10448 (18171)

Mastermind290420CTR

Perth Scorchers

Invested

$2,083.78

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$188.14

Record

47%

55-63 (118)

cigarettesARB<$100

Perth Scorchers

Invested

$1,514.5

Value

$723.75

PnL

-$790.75

Record

56%

18359-14700 (33059)

Both legs:

Perth Scorchers$1,21554¢-$821.25

Melbourne Stars$299.574.9¢+$30.5

SunlineTicker

Melbourne Stars

Invested

$470

Value

$470

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

4291-2628 (6919)

mouzsynapse

Melbourne Stars

Invested

$382.98

Value

$418.61

PnL

+$35.63

Record

37%

731-1227 (1958)

dips.

Melbourne Stars

Invested

$172.37

Value

$220.32

PnL

+$49.15

Record

47%

7295-8269 (15564)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Perth Scorchers

Invested

$177.62

Value

$195.77

PnL

+$22.32

Record

47%

2620-2921 (5541)

mishipolisARB<$100

Perth Scorchers

Invested

$155

Value

$133

PnL

-$22

Record

50%

4634-4559 (9193)

Both legs:

Melbourne Stars$4545¢+$38.5

Perth Scorchers$11036.7¢-$60.5

probabilityCTR<$100

Perth Scorchers

Invested

$71.37

Value

$76.95

PnL

+$3.56

Record

41%

1399-2007 (3406)

ferdinand2<$100

Melbourne Stars

Invested

$35.63

Value

$17.82

PnL

+$1.78

Record

51%

990-958 (1948)

pauleta23<$100

Melbourne Stars

Invested

$20

Value

$16.57

PnL

-$3.43

Record

66%

23615-11927 (35542)

iWasEnough<$100

Melbourne Stars

Invested

$11.22

Value

$12.34

PnL

+$1.12

Record

53%

8068-7281 (15349)

GamblingAddict12345<$100

Melbourne Stars

Invested

$9.39

Value

$9.39

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

3961-3861 (7822)

HRTrading<$100

Melbourne Stars

Invested

$7.56

Value

$7.9

PnL

+$0.34

Record

53%

6367-5753 (12120)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Perth Scorchers

Invested

$5.78

Value

$5.95

PnL

+$0.17

Record

51%

17602-16613 (34215)

Research grade

NeutralMelbourne Stars at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Melbourne Stars

10 of 15 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Melbourne Stars wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.