Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Brisbane Heat, while the market favors Melbourne Stars (63%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Big Bash League, Women: Melbourne Stars vs Brisbane Heat

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Brisbane Heat (67%) · Brisbane Heat at 37¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 19

Melbourne Stars63¢Brisbane Heat37¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Brisbane Heat

Consensus Traders

Brisbane Heat 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$99.9

Smart Money Entry

40.5¢ → 37¢

-9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralBrisbane Heat at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Brisbane Heat

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Melbourne Stars 63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Melbourne Stars63%

Brisbane Heat37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Brisbane Heat6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,159

Combined PnL-$105.08

Melbourne Stars3 traders

Total Value$92.21

Total Shares162

Combined PnL+$5.17

Brisbane Heat — 67%Melbourne Stars — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI midwicket72CTR	Brisbane Heatavg 40¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$82.92	— 3-7 (10)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Brisbane Heatavg 43.3¢	$186.36	$165.49	-$20.86	36% 410-719 (1129)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Melbourne Starsavg 50¢	$358.74	$160.84	-$7.24	55% 367-301 (668)
└ Melbourne Stars leg	Melbourne Starsavg 50¢	$91.87	$116.68	+$37.06
└ Brisbane Heat leg	Brisbane Heatavg 50¢	$60.5	$44.17	-$44.29
tradecraftARB<$100	Melbourne Starsavg 55.7¢	$103.05	$103.01	-$0.04	21% 166-630 (796)
└ Melbourne Stars leg	Melbourne Starsavg 55.7¢	$61.33	$60.53	-$0.79
└ Brisbane Heat leg	Brisbane Heatavg 44.2¢	$41.73	$42.48	+$0.75
RI RichieRicher<$100	Melbourne Starsavg 54.2¢	$76.58	$80.58	+$4	54% 465-396 (861)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Brisbane Heatavg 44¢	$11.44	$10.52	-$0.92	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
SU suntori<$100	Melbourne Starsavg 55¢	$6.28	$6.34	+$0.06	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Brisbane Heatavg 44¢	$6.6	$6.08	-$0.52	49% 973-998 (1971)
probability<$100	Melbourne Starsavg 45¢	$4.17	$5.29	+$1.11	42% 10-14 (24)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100	Brisbane Heatavg 43¢	$4.53	$4.63	+$0.11	44% 21-27 (48)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Brisbane Heatavg 43¢	$1.87	$1.91	+$0.04	44% 143-184 (327)

midwicket72CTR

Brisbane Heat

Invested

$1,224.42

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$82.92

Record

—

3-7 (10)

topdogbigboiCTR

Brisbane Heat

Invested

$186.36

Value

$165.49

PnL

-$20.86

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

NotJumpARB<$100

Melbourne Stars

Invested

$358.74

Value

$160.84

PnL

-$7.24

Record

55%

367-301 (668)

Both legs:

Melbourne Stars$91.8750¢+$37.06

Brisbane Heat$60.550¢-$44.29

tradecraftARB<$100

Melbourne Stars

Invested

$103.05

Value

$103.01

PnL

-$0.04

Record

21%

166-630 (796)

Both legs:

Melbourne Stars$61.3355.7¢-$0.79

Brisbane Heat$41.7344.2¢+$0.75

RichieRicher<$100

Melbourne Stars

Invested

$76.58

Value

$80.58

PnL

+$4

Record

54%

465-396 (861)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Brisbane Heat

Invested

$11.44

Value

$10.52

PnL

-$0.92

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

suntori<$100

Melbourne Stars

Invested

$6.28

Value

$6.34

PnL

+$0.06

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Brisbane Heat

Invested

$6.6

Value

$6.08

PnL

-$0.52

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

probability<$100

Melbourne Stars

Invested

$4.17

Value

$5.29

PnL

+$1.11

Record

42%

10-14 (24)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100

Brisbane Heat

Invested

$4.53

Value

$4.63

PnL

+$0.11

Record

44%

21-27 (48)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Brisbane Heat

Invested

$1.87

Value

$1.91

PnL

+$0.04

Record

44%

143-184 (327)

Research grade

NeutralBrisbane Heat at 37%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Brisbane Heat

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Melbourne Stars 63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Brisbane Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.2%

37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$155.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

255.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.