Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Melbourne Renegades, while the market favors Sydney Sixers (56%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Big Bash League, Women: Melbourne Renegades vs Sydney Sixers

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Melbourne Renegades (56%) · Melbourne Renegades at 44¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 19

Melbourne Renegades44¢Sydney Sixers56¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Melbourne Renegades

Consensus Traders

Melbourne Renegades 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$272.57

Smart Money Entry

41.9¢ → 44¢

+5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralMelbourne Renegades at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Melbourne Renegades

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Sydney Sixers 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Melbourne Renegades44%

Sydney Sixers56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Melbourne Renegades5 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares10,578

Combined PnL+$272.56

Sydney Sixers4 traders

Total Value$204.32

Total Shares302

Combined PnL+$0.01

Melbourne Renegades — 56%Sydney Sixers — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI midwicket72CTR	Melbourne Renegadesavg 41.8¢	$4.3K	$4.6K	+$278.42	— 3-7 (10)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Sydney Sixersavg 50.5¢	$472.59	$150.99	+$15.84	54% 410-348 (758)
└ Sydney Sixers leg	Sydney Sixersavg 50.5¢	$78.56	$81.71	+$16.08
└ Melbourne Renegades leg	Melbourne Renegadesavg 48.5¢	$70.71	$69.29	-$0.24
TO topdogbigboi	Sydney Sixersavg 58.1¢	$144.64	$149.35	+$4.71	37% 507-869 (1376)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Sydney Sixersavg 64¢	$53.56	$48.53	-$5.02	70% 1693-734 (2427)
MI mishipolisARB<$100	Sydney Sixersavg 59¢	$100.5	$47.26	+$1.03	41% 83-118 (201)
└ Sydney Sixers leg	Sydney Sixersavg 59¢	$29.5	$25.75	-$6.25
└ Melbourne Renegades leg	Melbourne Renegadesavg 41.5¢	$18.4	$21.51	+$7.28
SU suntoriCTR	Melbourne Renegadesavg 52.9¢	$130.28	$45.7	-$15.79	47% 1458-1629 (3087)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Melbourne Renegadesavg 39.2¢	$23.4	$29.86	+$6.46	51% 2468-2344 (4812)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Melbourne Renegadesavg 35¢	$17.5	$21	+$3.5	53% 6040-5408 (11448)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Sydney Sixersavg 49¢	$5.19	$5.51	+$0.32	51% 2022-1934 (3956)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Melbourne Renegadesavg 41¢	$2.05	$2.03	-$0.02	50% 1181-1203 (2384)
tradecraft<$100	Sydney Sixersavg 58¢	$0.93	$0.93	+$0	21% 170-631 (801)

midwicket72CTR

Melbourne Renegades

Invested

$4,341.87

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$278.42

Record

—

3-7 (10)

NotJumpARB<$100

Sydney Sixers

Invested

$472.59

Value

$150.99

PnL

+$15.84

Record

54%

410-348 (758)

Both legs:

Sydney Sixers$78.5650.5¢+$16.08

Melbourne Renegades$70.7148.5¢-$0.24

topdogbigboi

Sydney Sixers

Invested

$144.64

Value

$149.35

PnL

+$4.71

Record

37%

507-869 (1376)

SunlineTicker<$100

Sydney Sixers

Invested

$53.56

Value

$48.53

PnL

-$5.02

Record

70%

1693-734 (2427)

mishipolisARB<$100

Sydney Sixers

Invested

$100.5

Value

$47.26

PnL

+$1.03

Record

41%

83-118 (201)

Both legs:

Sydney Sixers$29.559¢-$6.25

Melbourne Renegades$18.441.5¢+$7.28

suntoriCTR

Melbourne Renegades

Invested

$130.28

Value

$45.7

PnL

-$15.79

Record

47%

1458-1629 (3087)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Melbourne Renegades

Invested

$23.4

Value

$29.86

PnL

+$6.46

Record

51%

2468-2344 (4812)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Melbourne Renegades

Invested

$17.5

Value

$21

PnL

+$3.5

Record

53%

6040-5408 (11448)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Sydney Sixers

Invested

$5.19

Value

$5.51

PnL

+$0.32

Record

51%

2022-1934 (3956)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Melbourne Renegades

Invested

$2.05

Value

$2.03

PnL

-$0.02

Record

50%

1181-1203 (2384)

tradecraft<$100

Sydney Sixers

Invested

$0.93

Value

$0.93

PnL

+$0

Record

21%

170-631 (801)

Research grade

NeutralMelbourne Renegades at 44%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Melbourne Renegades

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Sydney Sixers 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Melbourne Renegades wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.