Big Bash League, Women: Melbourne Renegades vs Adelaide Strikers

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Melbourne Renegades (55%) · Melbourne Renegades at 65¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 14

Melbourne Renegades65¢Adelaide Strikers35¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Melbourne Renegades

Consensus Traders

Melbourne Renegades 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

58.2¢ → 64.5¢

+11% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralMelbourne Renegades at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Melbourne Renegades

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Melbourne Renegades65%

Adelaide Strikers36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Melbourne Renegades6 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares9,738

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Adelaide Strikers5 traders

Total Value$725.47

Total Shares1,661

Combined PnL-$1.85

Melbourne Renegades — 55%Adelaide Strikers — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Melbourne Renegadesavg 61¢	$2.7K	$3.2K	+$500.73	50% 21502-21770 (43272)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Melbourne Renegadesavg 51.3¢	$722.27	$1.2K	+$434.31	59% 33150-23318 (56468)
RI RichieRicher	Melbourne Renegadesavg 66.5¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$55.88	54% 815-691 (1506)
CI cigarettes	Melbourne Renegadesavg 39.2¢	$495.11	$745.81	+$250.71	53% 24137-21182 (45319)
tradecraft	Melbourne Renegadesavg 69.7¢	$555.88	$494.39	-$61.49	51% 6507-6271 (12778)
DI dips.CTR	Adelaide Strikersavg 38.1¢	$500.35	$330.4	-$0.24	47% 10910-12487 (23397)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Adelaide Strikersavg 56.8¢	$218.59	$213.55	-$5.04	48% 4048-4325 (8373)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Adelaide Strikersavg 57¢	$125.93	$122.62	-$3.31	60% 4640-3044 (7684)
FL Flaznorp	Melbourne Renegadesavg 45.5¢	$85.59	$122.08	+$36.49	51% 26884-25495 (52379)
FE ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100	Melbourne Renegadesavg 45.8¢	$96.07	$99.05	+$2.98	42% 8104-11302 (19406)
└ Melbourne Renegades leg	Melbourne Renegadesavg 45.8¢	$74.04	$76.82	+$2.78
└ Adelaide Strikers leg	Adelaide Strikersavg 52¢	$22.04	$22.23	+$0.2
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Adelaide Strikersavg 31.5¢	$41.01	$47.29	+$6.28	47% 1329-1508 (2837)
probabilityCTR<$100	Adelaide Strikersavg 53.3¢	$11.16	$11.62	+$0.46	40% 1593-2386 (3979)

omnibus-076daa

Melbourne Renegades

Invested

$2,651.75

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$500.73

Record

50%

21502-21770 (43272)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Melbourne Renegades

Invested

$722.27

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$434.31

Record

59%

33150-23318 (56468)

RichieRicher

Melbourne Renegades

Invested

$1,069.03

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$55.88

Record

54%

815-691 (1506)

cigarettes

Melbourne Renegades

Invested

$495.11

Value

$745.81

PnL

+$250.71

Record

53%

24137-21182 (45319)

tradecraft

Melbourne Renegades

Invested

$555.88

Value

$494.39

PnL

-$61.49

Record

51%

6507-6271 (12778)

dips.CTR

Adelaide Strikers

Invested

$500.35

Value

$330.4

PnL

-$0.24

Record

47%

10910-12487 (23397)

NotradecopyCTR

Adelaide Strikers

Invested

$218.59

Value

$213.55

PnL

-$5.04

Record

48%

4048-4325 (8373)

SunlineTickerCTR

Adelaide Strikers

Invested

$125.93

Value

$122.62

PnL

-$3.31

Record

60%

4640-3044 (7684)

Flaznorp

Melbourne Renegades

Invested

$85.59

Value

$122.08

PnL

+$36.49

Record

51%

26884-25495 (52379)

ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100

Melbourne Renegades

Invested

$96.07

Value

$99.05

PnL

+$2.98

Record

42%

8104-11302 (19406)

Both legs:

Melbourne Renegades$74.0445.8¢+$2.78

Adelaide Strikers$22.0452¢+$0.2

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Adelaide Strikers

Invested

$41.01

Value

$47.29

PnL

+$6.28

Record

47%

1329-1508 (2837)

probabilityCTR<$100

Adelaide Strikers

Invested

$11.16

Value

$11.62

PnL

+$0.46

Record

40%

1593-2386 (3979)

Research grade

NeutralMelbourne Renegades at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Melbourne Renegades

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Melbourne Renegades wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.