Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Sudurpaschim Royals, while the market favors Janakpur Bolts (69%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Nepal Premier League: Sudurpaschim Royals vs Janakpur Bolts
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Sudurpaschim Royals (80%) · Sudurpaschim Royals at 31¢ · $851 held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
Sudurpaschim Royals
5
Sudurpaschim Royals 80%
1 arb excluded
$851.1
-$64.99
49.8¢ → 31¢
-38% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralSudurpaschim Royals at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Janakpur Bolts 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Sudurpaschim Royals. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 probabilityCTR | Sudurpaschim Royalsavg 49.9¢ | $641.79 | $606.13 | -$35.66 | — 1-11 (12) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Sudurpaschim Royalsavg 52.6¢ | $84.74 | $76.53 | -$8.21 | 54% 1606-1351 (2957) |
PT PT-S7CTR<$100 | Sudurpaschim Royalsavg 48.4¢ | $90.49 | $66.68 | -$20.92 | 7% 12-164 (176) |
CI cigarettesARB<$100 | Sudurpaschim Royalsavg 50¢ | $47 | $46.5 | -$0.5 | 52% 5313-4817 (10130) |
| └ Sudurpaschim Royals leg | Sudurpaschim Royalsavg 50¢ | $25 | $23.5 | -$1.5 | |
| └ Janakpur Bolts leg | Janakpur Boltsavg 44¢ | $22 | $23 | +$1 | |
 dips.<$100 | Janakpur Boltsavg 66.9¢ | $31.58 | $31.38 | -$0.2 | 42% 189-263 (452) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Sudurpaschim Royalsavg 45.5¢ | $23.89 | $23.88 | -$0.01 | 50% 1384-1403 (2787) |
probabilityCTRInvested
$641.79
Value
$606.13
PnL
-$35.66
Record
—
1-11 (12)
Invested
$84.74
Value
$76.53
PnL
-$8.21
Record
54%
1606-1351 (2957)
Invested
$90.49
Value
$66.68
PnL
-$20.92
Record
7%
12-164 (176)
Invested
$47
Value
$46.5
PnL
-$0.5
Record
52%
5313-4817 (10130)
Both legs:
dips.<$100Invested
$31.58
Value
$31.38
PnL
-$0.2
Record
42%
189-263 (452)
Invested
$23.89
Value
$23.88
PnL
-$0.01
Record
50%
1384-1403 (2787)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.