Nepal Premier League: Kathmandu Gurkhas vs Karnali Yaks

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Karnali Yaks (55%) · Karnali Yaks at 57¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 9

Kathmandu Gurkhas43¢Karnali Yaks57¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Karnali Yaks

Consensus Traders

Karnali Yaks 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$81.49

Smart Money Entry

72.6¢ → 57.5¢

-21% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralKarnali Yaks at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Karnali Yaks

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Kathmandu Gurkhas43%

Karnali Yaks57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Karnali Yaks6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,775

Combined PnL+$64.89

Kathmandu Gurkhas5 traders

Total Value$63.77

Total Shares165

Combined PnL+$16.6

Karnali Yaks — 55%Kathmandu Gurkhas — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Karnali Yaks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKarnali Yaks 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Karnali Yaks 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smithagent	Karnali Yaksavg 76.3¢	$374.14	$370.93	+$1.14	48% 3290-3579 (6869)
DI dips.	Karnali Yaksavg 71¢	$407	$345.95	+$56.98	46% 7314-8499 (15813)
CI cigarettes	Karnali Yaksavg 69.9¢	$261.57	$248.82	-$12.75	56% 18363-14703 (33066)
MO mouzsynapse	Karnali Yaksavg 55¢	$110	$152.89	+$42.89	37% 731-1227 (1958)
tradecraft	Karnali Yaksavg 94¢	$177.7	$145.54	-$21.5	51% 6150-5871 (12021)
MI mishipolisARB<$100	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 39¢	$237.27	$101.35	+$17.49	50% 4634-4559 (9193)
└ Karnali Yaks leg	Karnali Yaksavg 54.9¢	$49.83	$69.35	+$63.49
└ Kathmandu Gurkhas leg	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 39¢	$78	$32	-$46
poshposh<$100	Karnali Yaksavg 68¢	$82.62	$80.74	-$1.88	58% 11423-8278 (19701)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 16¢	$31.83	$39.48	+$7.65	42% 7723-10451 (18174)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 22.1¢	$8.57	$16.49	+$7.92	51% 17604-16613 (34217)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 20.8¢	$2.13	$3.43	+$1.31	53% 6368-5753 (12121)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 27.5¢	$3.14	$2.69	-$0.45	44% 6439-8045 (14484)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 30¢	$1.5	$1.68	+$0.18	51% 991-958 (1949)

smithagent

Karnali Yaks

Invested

$374.14

Value

$370.93

PnL

+$1.14

Record

48%

3290-3579 (6869)

dips.

Karnali Yaks

Invested

$407

Value

$345.95

PnL

+$56.98

Record

46%

7314-8499 (15813)

cigarettes

Karnali Yaks

Invested

$261.57

Value

$248.82

PnL

-$12.75

Record

56%

18363-14703 (33066)

mouzsynapse

Karnali Yaks

Invested

$110

Value

$152.89

PnL

+$42.89

Record

37%

731-1227 (1958)

tradecraft

Karnali Yaks

Invested

$177.7

Value

$145.54

PnL

-$21.5

Record

51%

6150-5871 (12021)

mishipolisARB<$100

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Invested

$237.27

Value

$101.35

PnL

+$17.49

Record

50%

4634-4559 (9193)

Both legs:

Karnali Yaks$49.8354.9¢+$63.49

Kathmandu Gurkhas$7839¢-$46

poshposh<$100

Karnali Yaks

Invested

$82.62

Value

$80.74

PnL

-$1.88

Record

58%

11423-8278 (19701)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Invested

$31.83

Value

$39.48

PnL

+$7.65

Record

42%

7723-10451 (18174)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Invested

$8.57

Value

$16.49

PnL

+$7.92

Record

51%

17604-16613 (34217)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Invested

$2.13

Value

$3.43

PnL

+$1.31

Record

53%

6368-5753 (12121)

suntoriCTR<$100

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Invested

$3.14

Value

$2.69

PnL

-$0.45

Record

44%

6439-8045 (14484)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.68

PnL

+$0.18

Record

51%

991-958 (1949)

Research grade

NeutralKarnali Yaks at 57%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Karnali Yaks

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Karnali Yaks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKarnali Yaks 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Karnali Yaks 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Karnali Yaks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.