Nepal Premier League: Karnali Yaks vs Lumbini Lions

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Lumbini Lions (44%) · Lumbini Lions at 85¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 19

Karnali Yaks15¢Lumbini Lions85¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lumbini Lions

Consensus Traders

Lumbini Lions 44%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$319.93

Smart Money Entry

63.1¢ → 85¢

+35% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralLumbini Lions at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lumbini Lions

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Karnali Yaks15%

Lumbini Lions85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lumbini Lions4 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,387

Combined PnL+$432.1

Karnali Yaks5 traders

Total Value$97.65

Total Shares563

Combined PnL-$112.17

Lumbini Lions — 44%Karnali Yaks — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Lumbini Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLumbini Lions 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Karnali Yaks 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GL glennyorkshire	Lumbini Lionsavg 61.8¢	$996.38	$1.4K	+$374.56	48% 93-100 (193)
MI mishipolis	Lumbini Lionsavg 72.8¢	$227.91	$237.74	+$9.83	42% 87-120 (207)
poshposh	Lumbini Lionsavg 58.5¢	$191.61	$219.71	+$28.1	47% 507-572 (1079)
TO topdogbigboi	Lumbini Lionsavg 63.8¢	$190.65	$210.26	+$19.61	37% 524-900 (1424)
MI midwicket72ARB<$100	Karnali Yaksavg 20.5¢	$194.49	$155.76	-$38.73	— 3-8 (11)
└ Lumbini Lions leg	Lumbini Lionsavg 85¢	$77.22	$78.58	+$1.36
└ Karnali Yaks leg	Karnali Yaksavg 20.5¢	$117.28	$77.18	-$40.09
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Karnali Yaksavg 44.4¢	$381.44	$129.88	-$7.03	54% 421-356 (777)
└ Lumbini Lions leg	Lumbini Lionsavg 50.6¢	$58.95	$100.86	+$121.07
└ Karnali Yaks leg	Karnali Yaksavg 44.4¢	$95.38	$29.03	-$128.1
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR	Karnali Yaksavg 38¢	$144.86	$57.18	-$87.68	57% 87-65 (152)
probabilityCTR<$100	Karnali Yaksavg 36.4¢	$54.07	$35.64	-$18.43	42% 11-15 (26)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Karnali Yaksavg 38¢	$4.82	$1.9	-$2.92	51% 2511-2408 (4919)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Karnali Yaksavg 38¢	$3.78	$1.49	-$2.29	50% 1216-1232 (2448)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Karnali Yaksavg 22.3¢	$2.3	$1.44	-$0.86	47% 1521-1691 (3212)

glennyorkshire

Lumbini Lions

Invested

$996.38

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$374.56

Record

48%

93-100 (193)

mishipolis

Lumbini Lions

Invested

$227.91

Value

$237.74

PnL

+$9.83

Record

42%

87-120 (207)

poshposh

Lumbini Lions

Invested

$191.61

Value

$219.71

PnL

+$28.1

Record

47%

507-572 (1079)

topdogbigboi

Lumbini Lions

Invested

$190.65

Value

$210.26

PnL

+$19.61

Record

37%

524-900 (1424)

midwicket72ARB<$100

Karnali Yaks

Invested

$194.49

Value

$155.76

PnL

-$38.73

Record

—

3-8 (11)

Both legs:

Lumbini Lions$77.2285¢+$1.36

Karnali Yaks$117.2820.5¢-$40.09

NotJumpARB<$100

Karnali Yaks

Invested

$381.44

Value

$129.88

PnL

-$7.03

Record

54%

421-356 (777)

Both legs:

Lumbini Lions$58.9550.6¢+$121.07

Karnali Yaks$95.3844.4¢-$128.1

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR

Karnali Yaks

Invested

$144.86

Value

$57.18

PnL

-$87.68

Record

57%

87-65 (152)

probabilityCTR<$100

Karnali Yaks

Invested

$54.07

Value

$35.64

PnL

-$18.43

Record

42%

11-15 (26)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Karnali Yaks

Invested

$4.82

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$2.92

Record

51%

2511-2408 (4919)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Karnali Yaks

Invested

$3.78

Value

$1.49

PnL

-$2.29

Record

50%

1216-1232 (2448)

suntoriCTR<$100

Karnali Yaks

Invested

$2.3

Value

$1.44

PnL

-$0.86

Record

47%

1521-1691 (3212)

Research grade

NeutralLumbini Lions at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lumbini Lions

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Lumbini Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLumbini Lions 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Karnali Yaks 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lumbini Lions wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.6%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.