Nepal Premier League: Janakpur Bolts vs Chitwan Rhinos

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Chitwan Rhinos (50%) · Chitwan Rhinos at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 20

Janakpur Bolts<1¢Chitwan Rhinos>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chitwan Rhinos

Consensus Traders

Chitwan Rhinos 50%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$499.47

Smart Money Entry

88.9¢ → 99.8¢

+12% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralChitwan Rhinos at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chitwan Rhinos

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Janakpur Bolts0%

Chitwan Rhinos100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chitwan Rhinos6 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares5,413

Combined PnL+$399.32

Janakpur Bolts6 traders

Total Value$164.09

Total Shares1,428

Combined PnL+$100.15

Chitwan Rhinos — 50%Janakpur Bolts — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

54% of non-arb traders are on Chitwan Rhinos. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrChitwan Rhinos 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Chitwan Rhinos 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LazarusGroup	Chitwan Rhinosavg 99.6¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$5.17	— 1-0 (1)
dips.	Chitwan Rhinosavg 70.2¢	$403.54	$573.92	+$170.38	46% 741-864 (1605)
poshposh	Chitwan Rhinosavg 74.6¢	$399.27	$455.71	+$56.43	46% 781-902 (1683)
tradecraft	Chitwan Rhinosavg 78.8¢	$374.92	$455.07	+$80.15	26% 250-703 (953)
NO NotJump	Chitwan Rhinosavg 50¢	$357.56	$377.78	+$37.43	53% 631-566 (1197)
OM omnibus-076daa	Chitwan Rhinosavg 80¢	$200	$249.75	+$49.75	44% 391-495 (886)
CI cigarettesCTR	Janakpur Boltsavg 6.4¢	$804.83	$111.15	+$100.31	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
SM smithagentCTR	Janakpur Boltsavg 20.3¢	$835.63	$18.12	+$57.42	43% 507-662 (1169)
probabilityCTR<$100	Janakpur Boltsavg 36¢	$58.78	$17.83	-$39.13	41% 18-26 (44)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Janakpur Boltsavg 25.4¢	$20.4	$9.01	-$11.39	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Janakpur Boltsavg 40¢	$9.6	$6.19	-$3.41	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Janakpur Boltsavg 34.1¢	$5.43	$1.78	-$3.65	49% 1668-1706 (3374)

LazarusGroup

Chitwan Rhinos

Invested

$3,408.85

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$5.17

Record

—

1-0 (1)

dips.

Chitwan Rhinos

Invested

$403.54

Value

$573.92

PnL

+$170.38

Record

46%

741-864 (1605)

poshposh

Chitwan Rhinos

Invested

$399.27

Value

$455.71

PnL

+$56.43

Record

46%

781-902 (1683)

tradecraft

Chitwan Rhinos

Invested

$374.92

Value

$455.07

PnL

+$80.15

Record

26%

250-703 (953)

NotJump

Chitwan Rhinos

Invested

$357.56

Value

$377.78

PnL

+$37.43

Record

53%

631-566 (1197)

omnibus-076daa

Chitwan Rhinos

Invested

$200

Value

$249.75

PnL

+$49.75

Record

44%

391-495 (886)

cigarettesCTR

Janakpur Bolts

Invested

$804.83

Value

$111.15

PnL

+$100.31

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

smithagentCTR

Janakpur Bolts

Invested

$835.63

Value

$18.12

PnL

+$57.42

Record

43%

507-662 (1169)

probabilityCTR<$100

Janakpur Bolts

Invested

$58.78

Value

$17.83

PnL

-$39.13

Record

41%

18-26 (44)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Janakpur Bolts

Invested

$20.4

Value

$9.01

PnL

-$11.39

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Janakpur Bolts

Invested

$9.6

Value

$6.19

PnL

-$3.41

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Janakpur Bolts

Invested

$5.43

Value

$1.78

PnL

-$3.65

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

Research grade

NeutralChitwan Rhinos at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Chitwan Rhinos

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

54% of non-arb traders are on Chitwan Rhinos. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrChitwan Rhinos 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Chitwan Rhinos 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chitwan Rhinos wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.