Nepal Premier League: Chitwan Rhinos vs Kathmandu Gurkhas

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Kathmandu Gurkhas (50%) · Kathmandu Gurkhas at 100¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 16

Chitwan Rhinos<1¢Kathmandu Gurkhas>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Consensus Traders

Kathmandu Gurkhas 50%

Total Value

$13.1K

Combined PnL

-$809.54

Smart Money Entry

76.8¢ → 99.7¢

+30% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralKathmandu Gurkhas at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kathmandu Gurkhas

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Chitwan Rhinos0%

Kathmandu Gurkhas100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kathmandu Gurkhas5 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares10,512

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Chitwan Rhinos5 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares7,815

Combined PnL$-2.5K

Kathmandu Gurkhas — 50%Chitwan Rhinos — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Kathmandu Gurkhas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Chitwan Rhinos) and the top 1000 (10 on Kathmandu Gurkhas) disagree here.

whaleKathmandu Gurkhas 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpKathmandu Gurkhas 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKathmandu Gurkhas 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedChitwan Rhinos 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Kathmandu Gurkhas 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA pagliacci4	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 95.5¢	$6.2K	$6.2K	+$272.47	87% 1714-246 (1960)
MI midwicket72CTR	Chitwan Rhinosavg 43.8¢	$4.9K	$2.5K	$-2.4K	52% 303-280 (583)
OM omnibus-076daa	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 48¢	$2.4K	$2.0K	+$1.1K	50% 24147-24262 (48409)
tradecraft	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 52.5¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$1.76	51% 6933-6586 (13519)
dips.	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 53.1¢	$432.17	$744.1	+$311.93	48% 17837-19553 (37390)
FL Flaznorp	Kathmandu Gurkhasavg 45.9¢	$209.67	$209.56	+$17.28	52% 49669-46633 (96302)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Chitwan Rhinosavg 47.6¢	$169.94	$65.78	-$15.1	47% 2293-2595 (4888)
NO NotradecopyCTR<$100	Chitwan Rhinosavg 50¢	$6.76	$1.59	-$5.17	48% 4194-4520 (8714)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100	Chitwan Rhinosavg 49.8¢	$99.27	$0.04	-$39.11	46% 33781-39456 (73237)
probabilityCTR<$100	Chitwan Rhinosavg 50.4¢	$93.33	$0.01	-$5.76	38% 1810-2980 (4790)

pagliacci4

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Invested

$6,172.7

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$272.47

Record

87%

1714-246 (1960)

midwicket72CTR

Chitwan Rhinos

Invested

$4,932.49

Value

$2.5K

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

52%

303-280 (583)

omnibus-076daa

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Invested

$2,372.58

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

50%

24147-24262 (48409)

tradecraft

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Invested

$1,364.1

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$1.76

Record

51%

6933-6586 (13519)

dips.

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Invested

$432.17

Value

$744.1

PnL

+$311.93

Record

48%

17837-19553 (37390)

Flaznorp

Kathmandu Gurkhas

Invested

$209.67

Value

$209.56

PnL

+$17.28

Record

52%

49669-46633 (96302)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Chitwan Rhinos

Invested

$169.94

Value

$65.78

PnL

-$15.1

Record

47%

2293-2595 (4888)

NotradecopyCTR<$100

Chitwan Rhinos

Invested

$6.76

Value

$1.59

PnL

-$5.17

Record

48%

4194-4520 (8714)

ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100

Chitwan Rhinos

Invested

$99.27

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$39.11

Record

46%

33781-39456 (73237)

probabilityCTR<$100

Chitwan Rhinos

Invested

$93.33

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$5.76

Record

38%

1810-2980 (4790)

Research grade

NeutralKathmandu Gurkhas at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Kathmandu Gurkhas

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Kathmandu Gurkhas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Chitwan Rhinos) and the top 1000 (10 on Kathmandu Gurkhas) disagree here.

whaleKathmandu Gurkhas 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpKathmandu Gurkhas 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKathmandu Gurkhas 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedChitwan Rhinos 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Kathmandu Gurkhas 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kathmandu Gurkhas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.