Nepal Premier League: Chitwan Rhinos vs Karnali Yaks

1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Chitwan Rhinos (17%) · Chitwan Rhinos at 69¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 22

Chitwan Rhinos69¢Karnali Yaks31¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chitwan Rhinos

Consensus Traders

Chitwan Rhinos 17%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$10.96

Research grade

NeutralChitwan Rhinos at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chitwan Rhinos

1 of 6 top traders (17%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Chitwan Rhinos69%

Karnali Yaks32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chitwan Rhinos1 trader

Total Value$311.97

Total Shares459

Combined PnL+$9.18

Karnali Yaks5 traders

Total Value$22.6

Total Shares67

Combined PnL+$1.78

Chitwan Rhinos — 17%Karnali Yaks — 83%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI midwicket72ARB<$100	Chitwan Rhinosavg 62.6¢	$486.15	$545.39	+$59.24	33% 11-22 (33)
└ Chitwan Rhinos leg	Chitwan Rhinosavg 62.6¢	$372.3	$425.21	+$52.91
└ Karnali Yaks leg	Karnali Yaksavg 27¢	$113.85	$120.18	+$6.33
tradecraft	Chitwan Rhinosavg 65.4¢	$302.79	$311.97	+$9.18	34% 444-880 (1324)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Karnali Yaksavg 40.7¢	$320.37	$206.72	+$20.81	50% 1068-1058 (2126)
└ Chitwan Rhinos leg	Chitwan Rhinosavg 50¢	$95.39	$139.27	+$70.06
└ Karnali Yaks leg	Karnali Yaksavg 40.7¢	$101.64	$67.45	-$49.25
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Karnali Yaksavg 36.6¢	$83.88	$83.44	-$0.45	39% 1502-2375 (3877)
└ Karnali Yaks leg	Karnali Yaksavg 36.6¢	$48.18	$42.73	-$5.45
└ Chitwan Rhinos leg	Chitwan Rhinosavg 59.2¢	$35.71	$40.71	+$5
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Karnali Yaksavg 27¢	$5.94	$6.49	+$0.55	49% 4560-4822 (9382)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Karnali Yaksavg 37.3¢	$5.67	$6.09	+$0.42	46% 3106-3639 (6745)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Karnali Yaksavg 26¢	$3.38	$3.84	+$0.46	46% 854-997 (1851)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Karnali Yaksavg 44¢	$3.03	$3.24	+$0.21	50% 2799-2804 (5603)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Karnali Yaksavg 28¢	$2.8	$2.95	+$0.15	48% 2465-2697 (5162)

midwicket72ARB<$100

Chitwan Rhinos

Invested

$486.15

Value

$545.39

PnL

+$59.24

Record

33%

11-22 (33)

Both legs:

Chitwan Rhinos$372.362.6¢+$52.91

Karnali Yaks$113.8527¢+$6.33

tradecraft

Chitwan Rhinos

Invested

$302.79

Value

$311.97

PnL

+$9.18

Record

34%

444-880 (1324)

NotJumpARB<$100

Karnali Yaks

Invested

$320.37

Value

$206.72

PnL

+$20.81

Record

50%

1068-1058 (2126)

Both legs:

Chitwan Rhinos$95.3950¢+$70.06

Karnali Yaks$101.6440.7¢-$49.25

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Karnali Yaks

Invested

$83.88

Value

$83.44

PnL

-$0.45

Record

39%

1502-2375 (3877)

Both legs:

Karnali Yaks$48.1836.6¢-$5.45

Chitwan Rhinos$35.7159.2¢+$5

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Karnali Yaks

Invested

$5.94

Value

$6.49

PnL

+$0.55

Record

49%

4560-4822 (9382)

suntoriCTR<$100

Karnali Yaks

Invested

$5.67

Value

$6.09

PnL

+$0.42

Record

46%

3106-3639 (6745)

smithagentCTR<$100

Karnali Yaks

Invested

$3.38

Value

$3.84

PnL

+$0.46

Record

46%

854-997 (1851)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Karnali Yaks

Invested

$3.03

Value

$3.24

PnL

+$0.21

Record

50%

2799-2804 (5603)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Karnali Yaks

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.95

PnL

+$0.15

Record

48%

2465-2697 (5162)

Research grade

NeutralChitwan Rhinos at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Chitwan Rhinos

1 of 6 top traders (17%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chitwan Rhinos wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.