Nepal Premier League: Biratnagar Kings vs Pokhara Avengers

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Biratnagar Kings (60%) · Biratnagar Kings at 83¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 19

Biratnagar Kings83¢Pokhara Avengers17¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Biratnagar Kings

Consensus Traders

Biratnagar Kings 60%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$621.97

Smart Money Entry

60.2¢ → 83¢

+38% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralBiratnagar Kings at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Biratnagar Kings

6 of 10 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Biratnagar Kings83%

Pokhara Avengers17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Biratnagar Kings6 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares5,339

Combined PnL-$615.19

Pokhara Avengers4 traders

Total Value$35.02

Total Shares100

Combined PnL-$6.78

Biratnagar Kings — 60%Pokhara Avengers — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Biratnagar Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBiratnagar Kings 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Biratnagar Kings 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Biratnagar Kingsavg 61¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$60.13	53% 6040-5408 (11448)
alpheclabs2	Biratnagar Kingsavg 60.4¢	$1.0K	$677.59	-$371.06	44% 171-217 (388)
TO topdogbigboi	Biratnagar Kingsavg 58.3¢	$617.71	$422.84	-$194.87	37% 507-869 (1376)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Biratnagar Kingsavg 51.8¢	$205.1	$167.91	-$3.06	54% 410-348 (758)
└ Biratnagar Kings leg	Biratnagar Kingsavg 51.8¢	$113.23	$127.97	+$14.74
└ Pokhara Avengers leg	Pokhara Avengersavg 50¢	$48.13	$39.94	-$17.81
MI mishipolisARB<$100	Pokhara Avengersavg 31.4¢	$284.41	$148.54	-$14.25	41% 83-118 (201)
└ Pokhara Avengers leg	Pokhara Avengersavg 31.4¢	$150.01	$81.31	-$35.31
└ Biratnagar Kings leg	Biratnagar Kingsavg 57¢	$46.17	$67.23	+$21.06
dips.<$100	Biratnagar Kingsavg 62¢	$62.62	$62.12	-$0.5	45% 506-615 (1121)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Pokhara Avengersavg 48.8¢	$46.16	$45.32	-$0.84	51% 2022-1934 (3956)
└ Pokhara Avengers leg	Pokhara Avengersavg 48.8¢	$23.17	$24.91	+$1.74
└ Biratnagar Kings leg	Biratnagar Kingsavg 53.5¢	$22.99	$20.41	-$2.58
probability<$100	Biratnagar Kingsavg 46.9¢	$22.42	$28.05	+$7.36	44% 11-14 (25)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Pokhara Avengersavg 40.1¢	$21.2	$21.67	+$0.47	51% 2468-2344 (4812)
tradecraft<$100	Biratnagar Kingsavg 57.4¢	$17.63	$21.64	+$4.02	21% 170-631 (801)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Pokhara Avengersavg 45¢	$6.3	$5.18	-$1.12	43% 321-434 (755)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Pokhara Avengersavg 45¢	$5.94	$4.88	-$1.06	32% 276-598 (874)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Pokhara Avengersavg 42¢	$8.37	$3.29	-$5.08	50% 1181-1203 (2384)

cigarettes

Biratnagar Kings

Invested

$1,455.53

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$60.13

Record

53%

6040-5408 (11448)

alpheclabs2

Biratnagar Kings

Invested

$1,048.65

Value

$677.59

PnL

-$371.06

Record

44%

171-217 (388)

topdogbigboi

Biratnagar Kings

Invested

$617.71

Value

$422.84

PnL

-$194.87

Record

37%

507-869 (1376)

NotJumpARB<$100

Biratnagar Kings

Invested

$205.1

Value

$167.91

PnL

-$3.06

Record

54%

410-348 (758)

Both legs:

Biratnagar Kings$113.2351.8¢+$14.74

Pokhara Avengers$48.1350¢-$17.81

mishipolisARB<$100

Pokhara Avengers

Invested

$284.41

Value

$148.54

PnL

-$14.25

Record

41%

83-118 (201)

Both legs:

Pokhara Avengers$150.0131.4¢-$35.31

Biratnagar Kings$46.1757¢+$21.06

dips.<$100

Biratnagar Kings

Invested

$62.62

Value

$62.12

PnL

-$0.5

Record

45%

506-615 (1121)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Pokhara Avengers

Invested

$46.16

Value

$45.32

PnL

-$0.84

Record

51%

2022-1934 (3956)

Both legs:

Pokhara Avengers$23.1748.8¢+$1.74

Biratnagar Kings$22.9953.5¢-$2.58

probability<$100

Biratnagar Kings

Invested

$22.42

Value

$28.05

PnL

+$7.36

Record

44%

11-14 (25)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Pokhara Avengers

Invested

$21.2

Value

$21.67

PnL

+$0.47

Record

51%

2468-2344 (4812)

tradecraft<$100

Biratnagar Kings

Invested

$17.63

Value

$21.64

PnL

+$4.02

Record

21%

170-631 (801)

smithagentCTR<$100

Pokhara Avengers

Invested

$6.3

Value

$5.18

PnL

-$1.12

Record

43%

321-434 (755)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Pokhara Avengers

Invested

$5.94

Value

$4.88

PnL

-$1.06

Record

32%

276-598 (874)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Pokhara Avengers

Invested

$8.37

Value

$3.29

PnL

-$5.08

Record

50%

1181-1203 (2384)

Research grade

NeutralBiratnagar Kings at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Biratnagar Kings

6 of 10 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Biratnagar Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBiratnagar Kings 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Biratnagar Kings 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Biratnagar Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.7%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.