Nepal Premier League: Biratnagar Kings vs Lumbini Lions

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Biratnagar Kings (50%) · Biratnagar Kings at 56¢ · $562 held · ends Nov 21

Biratnagar Kings56¢Lumbini Lions44¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Biratnagar Kings

Consensus Traders

Biratnagar Kings 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$562.01

Combined PnL

$9.84

Research grade

NeutralBiratnagar Kings at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Biratnagar Kings

4 of 8 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Biratnagar Kings56%

Lumbini Lions44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Biratnagar Kings4 traders

Total Value$70.2

Total Shares150

Combined PnL+$8.06

Lumbini Lions4 traders

Total Value$79.23

Total Shares130

Combined PnL+$1.78

Biratnagar Kings — 50%Lumbini Lions — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Biratnagar Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBiratnagar Kings 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Biratnagar Kings 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Lumbini Lionsavg 48.1¢	$223.14	$140.3	+$7.29	52% 810-741 (1551)
└ Lumbini Lions leg	Lumbini Lionsavg 48.1¢	$88.93	$84.18	-$0.35
└ Biratnagar Kings leg	Biratnagar Kingsavg 50¢	$51.49	$56.12	+$7.64
MI midwicket72ARB<$100	Biratnagar Kingsavg 42.2¢	$125.2	$136.41	+$11.2	36% 10-18 (28)
└ Biratnagar Kings leg	Biratnagar Kingsavg 42.2¢	$68.37	$91.45	+$23.09
└ Lumbini Lions leg	Lumbini Lionsavg 55¢	$56.84	$44.95	-$11.88
poshposhARB<$100	Biratnagar Kingsavg 48.9¢	$124.66	$135.87	+$11.2	48% 1092-1167 (2259)
└ Biratnagar Kings leg	Biratnagar Kingsavg 48.9¢	$78.42	$85.83	+$7.41
└ Lumbini Lions leg	Lumbini Lionsavg 43¢	$46.24	$50.03	+$3.79
probability<$100	Biratnagar Kingsavg 37.6¢	$36.67	$43.86	+$7.19	52% 30-28 (58)
dips.CTR<$100	Lumbini Lionsavg 47¢	$34.31	$33.95	-$0.37	47% 963-1084 (2047)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Lumbini Lionsavg 47.9¢	$24.98	$26.2	+$1.22	50% 2504-2463 (4967)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Lumbini Lionsavg 47¢	$14.51	$15.24	+$0.73	49% 3801-3964 (7765)
CI cigarettes<$100	Biratnagar Kingsavg 46.6¢	$14.95	$14.44	-$0.51	53% 7043-6178 (13221)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Biratnagar Kingsavg 37¢	$5.67	$6.9	+$1.23	37% 1016-1695 (2711)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Biratnagar Kingsavg 50¢	$4.85	$5	+$0.15	48% 2063-2220 (4283)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Lumbini Lionsavg 48¢	$3.65	$3.84	+$0.19	46% 2583-3072 (5655)

NotJumpARB<$100

Lumbini Lions

Invested

$223.14

Value

$140.3

PnL

+$7.29

Record

52%

810-741 (1551)

Both legs:

Lumbini Lions$88.9348.1¢-$0.35

Biratnagar Kings$51.4950¢+$7.64

midwicket72ARB<$100

Biratnagar Kings

Invested

$125.2

Value

$136.41

PnL

+$11.2

Record

36%

10-18 (28)

Both legs:

Biratnagar Kings$68.3742.2¢+$23.09

Lumbini Lions$56.8455¢-$11.88

poshposhARB<$100

Biratnagar Kings

Invested

$124.66

Value

$135.87

PnL

+$11.2

Record

48%

1092-1167 (2259)

Both legs:

Biratnagar Kings$78.4248.9¢+$7.41

Lumbini Lions$46.2443¢+$3.79

probability<$100

Biratnagar Kings

Invested

$36.67

Value

$43.86

PnL

+$7.19

Record

52%

30-28 (58)

dips.CTR<$100

Lumbini Lions

Invested

$34.31

Value

$33.95

PnL

-$0.37

Record

47%

963-1084 (2047)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Lumbini Lions

Invested

$24.98

Value

$26.2

PnL

+$1.22

Record

50%

2504-2463 (4967)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Lumbini Lions

Invested

$14.51

Value

$15.24

PnL

+$0.73

Record

49%

3801-3964 (7765)

cigarettes<$100

Biratnagar Kings

Invested

$14.95

Value

$14.44

PnL

-$0.51

Record

53%

7043-6178 (13221)

topdogbigboi<$100

Biratnagar Kings

Invested

$5.67

Value

$6.9

PnL

+$1.23

Record

37%

1016-1695 (2711)

ferdinand2<$100

Biratnagar Kings

Invested

$4.85

Value

PnL

+$0.15

Record

48%

2063-2220 (4283)

suntoriCTR<$100

Lumbini Lions

Invested

$3.65

Value

$3.84

PnL

+$0.19

Record

46%

2583-3072 (5655)

Research grade

NeutralBiratnagar Kings at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Biratnagar Kings

4 of 8 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Biratnagar Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBiratnagar Kings 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Biratnagar Kings 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Biratnagar Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.