Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yas Lions, while the market favors UAE Bulls (100%). 2 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Abu Dhabi T10 League: Yas Lions vs UAE Bulls

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yas Lions (22%) · Yas Lions at 0.4¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 21

Yas Lions<1¢UAE Bulls>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yas Lions

Consensus Traders

Yas Lions 22%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.1K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

37.6¢ → 0.4¢

-99% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYas Lions at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yas Lions

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors UAE Bulls 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yas Lions0%

UAE Bulls100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yas Lions2 traders

Total Value$14.0K

Total Shares24,253

Combined PnL$-2.2K

UAE Bulls7 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares8,261

Combined PnL+$3.3K

Yas Lions — 22%UAE Bulls — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI midwicket72CTR	Yas Lionsavg 37.4¢	$16.0K	$13.9K	$-2.2K	33% 10-20 (30)
NA nanir488	UAE Bullsavg 49.8¢	$2.8K	$5.6K	+$2.8K	46% 13-15 (28)
tradecraft	UAE Bullsavg 52.8¢	$1.6K	$2.0K	+$360	30% 340-779 (1119)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Yas Lionsavg 53¢	$164.3	$176.7	+$12.4	39% 118-185 (303)
FL Flaznorp	UAE Bullsavg 45.9¢	$131.45	$137.67	+$6.22	49% 3844-4007 (7851)
SU suntori<$100	UAE Bullsavg 37¢	$50.42	$93.27	+$49.56	46% 2679-3158 (5837)
NO NotJump	UAE Bullsavg 80.2¢	$1.0K	$83.81	+$96.73	52% 828-769 (1597)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Yas Lionsavg 50.2¢	$52.78	$55.82	+$3.04	50% 2529-2490 (5019)
└ Yas Lions leg	Yas Lionsavg 50.2¢	$27.17	$28.14	+$0.97
└ UAE Bulls leg	UAE Bullsavg 44.4¢	$25.61	$27.68	+$2.07
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	UAE Bullsavg 43.4¢	$30.31	$30.07	-$0.25	38% 550-886 (1436)
FE ferdinand2<$100	UAE Bullsavg 45.5¢	$27.71	$24.03	+$1.22	48% 2091-2257 (4348)

midwicket72CTR

Yas Lions

Invested

$16,043.73

Value

$13.9K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

33%

10-20 (30)

nanir488

UAE Bulls

Invested

$2,842.2

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

46%

13-15 (28)

tradecraft

UAE Bulls

Invested

$1,649.65

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$360

Record

30%

340-779 (1119)

mouzsynapseCTR

Yas Lions

Invested

$164.3

Value

$176.7

PnL

+$12.4

Record

39%

118-185 (303)

Flaznorp

UAE Bulls

Invested

$131.45

Value

$137.67

PnL

+$6.22

Record

49%

3844-4007 (7851)

suntori<$100

UAE Bulls

Invested

$50.42

Value

$93.27

PnL

+$49.56

Record

46%

2679-3158 (5837)

NotJump

UAE Bulls

Invested

$1,001.59

Value

$83.81

PnL

+$96.73

Record

52%

828-769 (1597)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Yas Lions

Invested

$52.78

Value

$55.82

PnL

+$3.04

Record

50%

2529-2490 (5019)

Both legs:

Yas Lions$27.1750.2¢+$0.97

UAE Bulls$25.6144.4¢+$2.07

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

UAE Bulls

Invested

$30.31

Value

$30.07

PnL

-$0.25

Record

38%

550-886 (1436)

ferdinand2<$100

UAE Bulls

Invested

$27.71

Value

$24.03

PnL

+$1.22

Record

48%

2091-2257 (4348)

Research grade

AvoidYas Lions at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yas Lions

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors UAE Bulls 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yas Lions wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.5%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6707.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

6807.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.