Abu Dhabi T10 League: United Tigers vs Yas Lions
7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yas Lions (70%) · Yas Lions at 91¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 22
⚖️
Neutral
Yas Lions
10
Yas Lions 70%
$10.7K
$1.7K
61¢ → 91¢
+49% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralYas Lions at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+17 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yas Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI midwicket72 | Yas Lionsavg 60.9¢ | $6.1K | $7.7K | +$1.5K | 32% 13-28 (41) |
NA nanir488CTR | United Tigersavg 34¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$19.87 | 44% 16-20 (36) |
 tradecraft | Yas Lionsavg 64.2¢ | $715.99 | $975.12 | +$259.13 | 34% 476-910 (1386) |
MO mouzsynapse | Yas Lionsavg 47¢ | $111.69 | $157.68 | +$45.99 | 41% 166-237 (403) |
NO NotJump | Yas Lionsavg 77¢ | $520.11 | $123.69 | -$67.63 | 50% 1136-1139 (2275) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Yas Lionsavg 46.7¢ | $35.47 | $41.12 | +$5.65 | 50% 2851-2894 (5745) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Yas Lionsavg 36.1¢ | $23.38 | $34.11 | +$10.73 | 49% 4676-4943 (9619) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | United Tigersavg 29.1¢ | $62.36 | $18.25 | -$44.12 | 46% 3282-3819 (7101) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Yas Lionsavg 35¢ | $10.25 | $3.32 | +$3.07 | 48% 2555-2763 (5318) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | United Tigersavg 50.9¢ | $2.96 | $1.95 | -$1 | 47% 37-41 (78) |
Invested
$6,113.36
Value
$7.7K
PnL
+$1.5K
Record
32%
13-28 (41)
Invested
$1,700
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$19.87
Record
44%
16-20 (36)
tradecraftInvested
$715.99
Value
$975.12
PnL
+$259.13
Record
34%
476-910 (1386)
Invested
$111.69
Value
$157.68
PnL
+$45.99
Record
41%
166-237 (403)
Invested
$520.11
Value
$123.69
PnL
-$67.63
Record
50%
1136-1139 (2275)
Invested
$35.47
Value
$41.12
PnL
+$5.65
Record
50%
2851-2894 (5745)
Invested
$23.38
Value
$34.11
PnL
+$10.73
Record
49%
4676-4943 (9619)
Invested
$62.36
Value
$18.25
PnL
-$44.12
Record
46%
3282-3819 (7101)
Invested
$10.25
Value
$3.32
PnL
+$3.07
Record
48%
2555-2763 (5318)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$2.96
Value
$1.95
PnL
-$1
Record
47%
37-41 (78)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
midwicket72
Yas Lions — $7.7K
nanir488
CTRUnited Tigers — $1.7K
tradecraft
Yas Lions — $975.12
mouzsynapse
Yas Lions — $157.68
NotJump
Yas Lions — $123.69
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Yas Lions — $41.12
Flaznorp
Yas Lions — $34.11
suntori
CTRUnited Tigers — $18.25
ferdinand2
Yas Lions — $3.32
probability
CTRUnited Tigers — $1.95