Abu Dhabi T10 League: Royal Desert Champions vs United Tigers

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold United Tigers (38%) · United Tigers at 94¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 21

Royal Desert Champions7¢United Tigers93¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

United Tigers

Consensus Traders

United Tigers 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$105.97

Smart Money Entry

80.2¢ → 93.5¢

+17% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnited Tigers at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

United Tigers

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Royal Desert Champions7%

United Tigers94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

United Tigers3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,375

Combined PnL+$116.06

Royal Desert Champions5 traders

Total Value$53.04

Total Shares147

Combined PnL-$10.08

United Tigers — 38%Royal Desert Champions — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on United Tigers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRoyal Desert Champions 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Royal Desert Champions 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tradecraft	United Tigersavg 84.7¢	$940.63	$1.0K	+$92.66	30% 331-772 (1103)
MI midwicket72ARB<$100	Royal Desert Championsavg 44.8¢	$597.3	$369.43	-$227.87	36% 10-18 (28)
└ United Tigers leg	United Tigersavg 59.1¢	$188.4	$291.8	+$103.4
└ Royal Desert Champions leg	Royal Desert Championsavg 44.8¢	$408.9	$77.63	-$331.27
NO NotJump	United Tigersavg 61.4¢	$254.11	$252.05	+$23.33	52% 810-741 (1551)
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	Royal Desert Championsavg 48¢	$37.04	$27.78	-$9.26	40% 115-174 (289)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Royal Desert Championsavg 31.2¢	$10.6	$12.22	+$1.62	49% 3801-3964 (7765)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Royal Desert Championsavg 48¢	$10.18	$7.64	-$2.55	50% 2504-2463 (4967)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Royal Desert Championsavg 30¢	$3	$3.6	+$0.6	48% 2063-2220 (4283)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR<$100	Royal Desert Championsavg 46¢	$2.3	$1.8	-$0.5	53% 38-34 (72)
probability<$100	United Tigersavg 51¢	$1.04	$1.1	+$0.06	52% 30-28 (58)

tradecraft

United Tigers

Invested

$940.63

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$92.66

Record

30%

331-772 (1103)

midwicket72ARB<$100

Royal Desert Champions

Invested

$597.3

Value

$369.43

PnL

-$227.87

Record

36%

10-18 (28)

Both legs:

United Tigers$188.459.1¢+$103.4

Royal Desert Champions$408.944.8¢-$331.27

NotJump

United Tigers

Invested

$254.11

Value

$252.05

PnL

+$23.33

Record

52%

810-741 (1551)

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

Royal Desert Champions

Invested

$37.04

Value

$27.78

PnL

-$9.26

Record

40%

115-174 (289)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Royal Desert Champions

Invested

$10.6

Value

$12.22

PnL

+$1.62

Record

49%

3801-3964 (7765)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Royal Desert Champions

Invested

$10.18

Value

$7.64

PnL

-$2.55

Record

50%

2504-2463 (4967)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Royal Desert Champions

Invested

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$0.6

Record

48%

2063-2220 (4283)

GamblingAddict12345CTR<$100

Royal Desert Champions

Invested

$2.3

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$0.5

Record

53%

38-34 (72)

probability<$100

United Tigers

Invested

$1.04

Value

$1.1

PnL

+$0.06

Record

52%

30-28 (58)

Research grade

NeutralUnited Tigers at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

United Tigers

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on United Tigers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRoyal Desert Champions 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Royal Desert Champions 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that United Tigers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.