Abu Dhabi T10 League: Royal Desert Champions vs Arabian Aces

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Arabian Aces (50%) · Arabian Aces at 72¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 22

Royal Desert Champions28¢Arabian Aces72¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Arabian Aces

Consensus Traders

Arabian Aces 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$131.57

Smart Money Entry

70¢ → 71.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralArabian Aces at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Arabian Aces

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Royal Desert Champions28%

Arabian Aces72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Arabian Aces3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,337

Combined PnL-$126.35

Royal Desert Champions3 traders

Total Value$146.28

Total Shares331

Combined PnL-$5.22

Arabian Aces — 50%Royal Desert Champions — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI midwicket72ARB<$100	Royal Desert Championsavg 41.9¢	$2.8K	$1.7K	$-1.1K	33% 12-24 (36)
└ Royal Desert Champions leg	Royal Desert Championsavg 41.9¢	$2.5K	$1.3K	$-1.2K
└ Arabian Aces leg	Arabian Acesavg 64.1¢	$353.91	$430.69	+$76.78
tradecraft	Arabian Acesavg 70.7¢	$1.1K	$968.91	-$102.78	34% 460-894 (1354)
NO NotJump	Arabian Acesavg 64.9¢	$646.25	$152.42	-$26.67	50% 1112-1113 (2225)
SU suntori<$100	Arabian Acesavg 71.8¢	$84.45	$79.51	+$3.1	46% 3204-3750 (6954)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Royal Desert Championsavg 47.9¢	$85.82	$77.47	-$8.34	50% 2835-2864 (5699)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Royal Desert Championsavg 37.1¢	$50.79	$54.81	+$4.02	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Royal Desert Championsavg 42.6¢	$14.9	$14	-$0.9	48% 2518-2728 (5246)

midwicket72ARB<$100

Royal Desert Champions

Invested

$2,831.84

Value

$1.7K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

33%

12-24 (36)

Both legs:

Royal Desert Champions$2,477.9341.9¢$-1.2K

Arabian Aces$353.9164.1¢+$76.78

tradecraft

Arabian Aces

Invested

$1,071.69

Value

$968.91

PnL

-$102.78

Record

34%

460-894 (1354)

NotJump

Arabian Aces

Invested

$646.25

Value

$152.42

PnL

-$26.67

Record

50%

1112-1113 (2225)

suntori<$100

Arabian Aces

Invested

$84.45

Value

$79.51

PnL

+$3.1

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Royal Desert Champions

Invested

$85.82

Value

$77.47

PnL

-$8.34

Record

50%

2835-2864 (5699)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Royal Desert Champions

Invested

$50.79

Value

$54.81

PnL

+$4.02

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Royal Desert Champions

Invested

$14.9

Value

$14

PnL

-$0.9

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

Research grade

NeutralArabian Aces at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Arabian Aces

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Arabian Aces wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.