Abu Dhabi T10 League: Arabian Aces vs Emirates Eagles

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Arabian Aces (67%) · Arabian Aces at 61¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 21

Arabian Aces61¢Emirates Eagles39¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Arabian Aces

Consensus Traders

Arabian Aces 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.7K

Combined PnL

$2.0K

Smart Money Entry

23.4¢ → 61¢

+161% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralArabian Aces at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Arabian Aces

4 of 6 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Arabian Aces61%

Emirates Eagles39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Arabian Aces4 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares5,124

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Emirates Eagles2 traders

Total Value$91.43

Total Shares156

Combined PnL+$5.71

Arabian Aces — 67%Emirates Eagles — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI midwicket72ARB<$100	Emirates Eaglesavg 64.6¢	$12.0K	$9.5K	$-2.5K	36% 10-18 (28)
└ Emirates Eagles leg	Emirates Eaglesavg 64.6¢	$8.4K	$5.1K	$-3.3K
└ Arabian Aces leg	Arabian Acesavg 49.6¢	$3.6K	$4.5K	+$835.91
NA nanir488	Arabian Acesavg 23¢	$1.2K	$3.1K	+$2.0K	44% 12-15 (27)
tradecraftARB<$100	Emirates Eaglesavg 67.6¢	$994.9	$687.67	-$273.99	30% 334-774 (1108)
└ Arabian Aces leg	Arabian Acesavg 57.6¢	$330.07	$369.65	+$39.58
└ Emirates Eagles leg	Emirates Eaglesavg 67.6¢	$605.67	$318.01	-$313.57
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Emirates Eaglesavg 44¢	$701.61	$155.08	+$6.85	52% 815-747 (1562)
└ Emirates Eagles leg	Emirates Eaglesavg 44¢	$116.81	$98.17	+$47.07
└ Arabian Aces leg	Arabian Acesavg 53.4¢	$48.22	$56.91	-$40.23
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	Emirates Eaglesavg 47.2¢	$54.63	$57.56	+$2.93	40% 117-175 (292)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Arabian Acesavg 44.2¢	$44.74	$49.94	+$5.19	49% 3811-3974 (7785)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Emirates Eaglesavg 47.7¢	$31.1	$33.87	+$2.78	50% 2513-2472 (4985)
SU suntori<$100	Arabian Acesavg 35.7¢	$7.08	$9.75	+$4.83	46% 2616-3104 (5720)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Arabian Acesavg 47.5¢	$4.75	$5.2	+$0.45	48% 2067-2229 (4296)

midwicket72ARB<$100

Emirates Eagles

Invested

$12,007.91

Value

$9.5K

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

36%

10-18 (28)

Both legs:

Emirates Eagles$8,375.2264.6¢$-3.3K

Arabian Aces$3,632.6949.6¢+$835.91

nanir488

Arabian Aces

Invested

$1,156.65

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

44%

12-15 (27)

tradecraftARB<$100

Emirates Eagles

Invested

$994.9

Value

$687.67

PnL

-$273.99

Record

30%

334-774 (1108)

Both legs:

Arabian Aces$330.0757.6¢+$39.58

Emirates Eagles$605.6767.6¢-$313.57

NotJumpARB<$100

Emirates Eagles

Invested

$701.61

Value

$155.08

PnL

+$6.85

Record

52%

815-747 (1562)

Both legs:

Emirates Eagles$116.8144¢+$47.07

Arabian Aces$48.2253.4¢-$40.23

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

Emirates Eagles

Invested

$54.63

Value

$57.56

PnL

+$2.93

Record

40%

117-175 (292)

Flaznorp<$100

Arabian Aces

Invested

$44.74

Value

$49.94

PnL

+$5.19

Record

49%

3811-3974 (7785)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Emirates Eagles

Invested

$31.1

Value

$33.87

PnL

+$2.78

Record

50%

2513-2472 (4985)

suntori<$100

Arabian Aces

Invested

$7.08

Value

$9.75

PnL

+$4.83

Record

46%

2616-3104 (5720)

ferdinand2<$100

Arabian Aces

Invested

$4.75

Value

$5.2

PnL

+$0.45

Record

48%

2067-2229 (4296)

Research grade

NeutralArabian Aces at 61%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Arabian Aces

4 of 6 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Arabian Aces wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.