Will St. Vincent and the Grenadines win on 2026-11-14?

3 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (23%) · Yes at 88¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 15

Yes88¢No12¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 23%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.4K

Combined PnL

$879.24

Smart Money Entry

62.6¢ → 87.5¢

+40% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 13 top traders (23%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes88%

No13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares7,962

Combined PnL+$2.0K

No10 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares11,668

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Yes — 23%No — 77%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x7d3b7ff761d046f5dc1d972e8a755dc1eccf55b8	Yesavg 62.5¢	$5.0K	$6.9K	+$2.0K	78% 18-5 (23)
SL SlickRick123CTR	Noavg 37¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$99.2	35% 399-742 (1141)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 38.7¢	$1.7K	$568.59	$-1.1K	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Noavg 39¢	$116.66	$119.65	+$2.99	48% 547-581 (1128)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 30¢	$179.08	$91.11	-$87.98	53% 2249-2030 (4279)
└ No leg	Noavg 30¢	$159.01	$60.94	-$98.08
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 58.9¢	$20.07	$30.17	+$10.1
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Noavg 50¢	$76	$76	-$0	68% 136-63 (199)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$38	$47.88	+$9.88
└ No leg	Noavg 50¢	$38	$28.12	-$9.88
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Noavg 32.4¢	$102.09	$40.97	-$61.11	38% 1175-1954 (3129)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 73.6¢	$15.6	$18.55	+$2.95	46% 2852-3388 (6240)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 38.3¢	$11.19	$9.93	-$1.25	48% 2245-2407 (4652)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 41.6¢	$10.02	$8.91	-$1.1	42% 1060-1490 (2550)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$5.83	$6.02	+$0.19	62% 227-140 (367)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$3.23	$2.99	-$0.24	36% 118-207 (325)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$1.85	$1.93	+$0.07	45% 405-503 (908)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$1.62	$1.68	+$0.07	35% 520-947 (1467)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$0.54	$0.56	+$0.02	51% 917-874 (1791)

0x7d3b7ff761d046f5dc1d972e8a755dc1eccf55b8

Yes

Invested

$4,960

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

78%

18-5 (23)

SlickRick123CTR

Invested

$2,446.96

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$99.2

Record

35%

399-742 (1141)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$1,711.12

Value

$568.59

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Invested

$116.66

Value

$119.65

PnL

+$2.99

Record

48%

547-581 (1128)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$179.08

Value

$91.11

PnL

-$87.98

Record

53%

2249-2030 (4279)

Both legs:

No$159.0130¢-$98.08

Yes$20.0758.9¢+$10.1

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Invested

$76

Value

$76

PnL

-$0

Record

68%

136-63 (199)

Both legs:

Yes$3850¢+$9.88

No$3850¢-$9.88

topdogbigboiCTR

Invested

$102.09

Value

$40.97

PnL

-$61.11

Record

38%

1175-1954 (3129)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.6

Value

$18.55

PnL

+$2.95

Record

46%

2852-3388 (6240)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$11.19

Value

$9.93

PnL

-$1.25

Record

48%

2245-2407 (4652)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$10.02

Value

$8.91

PnL

-$1.1

Record

42%

1060-1490 (2550)

thatsabing0<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.83

Value

$6.02

PnL

+$0.19

Record

62%

227-140 (367)

biying99999CTR<$100

Invested

$3.23

Value

$2.99

PnL

-$0.24

Record

36%

118-207 (325)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Invested

$1.85

Value

$1.93

PnL

+$0.07

Record

45%

405-503 (908)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$1.62

Value

$1.68

PnL

+$0.07

Record

35%

520-947 (1467)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.56

PnL

+$0.02

Record

51%

917-874 (1791)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 13 top traders (23%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.