St. Vincent and the Grenadines vs. Belize: O/U 1.5

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$2.1K

Smart Money Entry

43.4¢ → 100¢

+130% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares4,011

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Over5 traders

Total Value$159.56

Total Shares350

Combined PnL+$64.32

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (12 on Under) disagree here.

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 38.4¢	$1.2K	$3.1K	+$1.9K	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 52.5¢	$247.43	$294.04	+$46.61	53% 2358-2131 (4489)
SP spendingmoney	Underavg 91¢	$202.18	$222.17	+$19.99	— 8-5 (13)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 9.2¢	$26.94	$93.95	+$67.01	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 40¢	$40	$63	+$23	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 20.2¢	$17.39	$33.53	+$16.13	35% 565-1034 (1599)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 51.6¢	$14.28	$27.63	+$13.35	46% 2939-3486 (6425)
dips.<$100	Underavg 80¢	$20	$24.99	+$4.99	48% 1115-1227 (2342)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Overavg 69¢	$36.94	$23.34	-$13.6	83% 849-177 (1026)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 45¢	$10.13	$22.5	+$12.37	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 52.2¢	$9.11	$10.99	+$1.88	48% 2325-2529 (4854)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 58¢	$8.5	$8.73	+$0.23	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
LR lryyy<$100	Underavg 31¢	$3.41	$6.93	+$3.52	46% 877-1050 (1927)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 34¢	$3.05	$5.65	+$2.6	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 15.2¢	$5.47	$0.02	-$5.45	37% 1176-1966 (3142)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,196.19

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$247.43

Value

$294.04

PnL

+$46.61

Record

53%

2358-2131 (4489)

spendingmoney

Under

Invested

$202.18

Value

$222.17

PnL

+$19.99

Record

—

8-5 (13)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$26.94

Value

$93.95

PnL

+$67.01

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$40

Value

$63

PnL

+$23

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.39

Value

$33.53

PnL

+$16.13

Record

35%

565-1034 (1599)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$14.28

Value

$27.63

PnL

+$13.35

Record

46%

2939-3486 (6425)

dips.<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$24.99

PnL

+$4.99

Record

48%

1115-1227 (2342)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Over

Invested

$36.94

Value

$23.34

PnL

-$13.6

Record

83%

849-177 (1026)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$10.13

Value

$22.5

PnL

+$12.37

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$9.11

Value

$10.99

PnL

+$1.88

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.5

Value

$8.73

PnL

+$0.23

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

lryyy<$100

Under

Invested

$3.41

Value

$6.93

PnL

+$3.52

Record

46%

877-1050 (1927)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$3.05

Value

$5.65

PnL

+$2.6

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.47

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$5.45

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (12 on Under) disagree here.

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.