Will Belize win on 2026-11-14?
10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 83%
$3.8K
$99.17
94.4¢ → 100¢
+6% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+48 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$30.24 | 55% 5637-4683 (10320) |
 Secondhandvinyl | Noavg 98¢ | $607.95 | $615.83 | +$7.88 | 76% 321-102 (423) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 85.7¢ | $366.53 | $424.27 | +$57.74 | 37% 1136-1943 (3079) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 89.5¢ | $395.01 | $341.1 | -$53.92 | 49% 4276-4505 (8781) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 80.5¢ | $270.54 | $333.63 | +$63.09 | 37% 1155-1943 (3098) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $46.73 | $43.66 | -$3.07 | 52% 2345-2123 (4468) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $23.33 | $18.21 | -$5.12 | 41% 1104-1559 (2663) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $9.32 | $11.16 | +$1.84 | 38% 1162-1897 (3059) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $5.25 | $6.22 | +$0.96 | 32% 412-857 (1269) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $4.99 | $4.96 | -$0.03 | 48% 2318-2517 (4835) |
SM smithagentCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $1.14 | $0.76 | -$0.38 | 46% 769-917 (1686) |
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.15 | $0.1 | -$0.05 | 11% 51-430 (481) |
RN1Invested
$1,967.48
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$30.24
Record
55%
5637-4683 (10320)
SecondhandvinylInvested
$607.95
Value
$615.83
PnL
+$7.88
Record
76%
321-102 (423)
Invested
$366.53
Value
$424.27
PnL
+$57.74
Record
37%
1136-1943 (3079)
Invested
$395.01
Value
$341.1
PnL
-$53.92
Record
49%
4276-4505 (8781)
Invested
$270.54
Value
$333.63
PnL
+$63.09
Record
37%
1155-1943 (3098)
Invested
$46.73
Value
$43.66
PnL
-$3.07
Record
52%
2345-2123 (4468)
Invested
$23.33
Value
$18.21
PnL
-$5.12
Record
41%
1104-1559 (2663)
Invested
$9.32
Value
$11.16
PnL
+$1.84
Record
38%
1162-1897 (3059)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$5.25
Value
$6.22
PnL
+$0.96
Record
32%
412-857 (1269)
Invested
$4.99
Value
$4.96
PnL
-$0.03
Record
48%
2318-2517 (4835)
Invested
$1.14
Value
$0.76
PnL
-$0.38
Record
46%
769-917 (1686)
Invested
$0.15
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$0.05
Record
11%
51-430 (481)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.