Will Dominica win on 2026-11-13?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 93¢ · $559 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 78%
$558.58
-$259.72
90.1¢ → 93¢
+3% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 92¢ | $208.4 | $209.53 | +$1.13 | 54% 1849-1555 (3404) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 93¢ | $338.81 | $162.12 | -$176.69 | 36% 326-587 (913) |
MA makerview00CTR<$100 | Yesavg 78.7¢ | $81.85 | $57.75 | -$24.1 | — 1-4 (5) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $64.16 | $30.7 | -$33.46 | 33% 251-499 (750) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $64.14 | $30.69 | -$33.45 | 59% 3648-2489 (6137) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $16.48 | $18.55 | +$2.07 | 51% 3195-3131 (6326) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $17.55 | $17.45 | -$0.09 | 34% 736-1405 (2141) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $17 | $17.09 | +$0.09 | 26% 250-705 (955) |
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100 | Noavg 30¢ | $9.9 | $14.69 | +$4.79 | 50% 118-117 (235) |
Invested
$208.4
Value
$209.53
PnL
+$1.13
Record
54%
1849-1555 (3404)
Invested
$338.81
Value
$162.12
PnL
-$176.69
Record
36%
326-587 (913)
Invested
$81.85
Value
$57.75
PnL
-$24.1
Record
—
1-4 (5)
Invested
$64.16
Value
$30.7
PnL
-$33.46
Record
33%
251-499 (750)
Invested
$64.14
Value
$30.69
PnL
-$33.45
Record
59%
3648-2489 (6137)
Invested
$16.48
Value
$18.55
PnL
+$2.07
Record
51%
3195-3131 (6326)
Invested
$17.55
Value
$17.45
PnL
-$0.09
Record
34%
736-1405 (2141)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$17
Value
$17.09
PnL
+$0.09
Record
26%
250-705 (955)
Invested
$9.9
Value
$14.69
PnL
+$4.79
Record
50%
118-117 (235)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.