Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Nicaragua — but Montserrat won instead.
Spread: Nicaragua (-1.5)
Resolved Montserrat. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held Nicaragua. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
16
Nicaragua 31%
2 arb excluded
$8.9K
-$751.56
Smart Money Signal
6 of 16 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Montserratavg 52.5¢ | $3.6K | $3.9K | +$343.42 | 50% 3544-3611 (7155) |
| └ Montserrat leg | Montserratavg 52.5¢ | $2.1K | $3.9K | +$1.9K | |
| └ Nicaragua leg | Nicaraguaavg 53.6¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.5K | |
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115CTR | Nicaraguaavg 48.5¢ | $2.9K | — | $-2.9K | 15% 14-81 (95) |
MA MadridTime | Montserratavg 50¢ | $1.1K | $2.3K | +$1.1K | 37% 926-1560 (2486) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Montserratavg 58.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.4K | +$328.27 | 54% 2013-1746 (3759) |
VE Venusian | Montserratavg 30.5¢ | $255.45 | $838.1 | +$582.65 | 36% 893-1601 (2494) |
RA rabbitfoot1 | Montserratavg 50¢ | $76.06 | $152.12 | +$76.06 | 3% 13-383 (396) |
 poshposhARB<$100 | Nicaraguaavg 43¢ | $119.49 | $70 | -$49.49 | 48% 1014-1101 (2115) |
| └ Nicaragua leg | Nicaraguaavg 43¢ | $84.49 | — | -$84.49 | |
| └ Montserrat leg | Montserratavg 50¢ | $35 | $70 | +$35 | |
BI biying99999<$100 | Montserratavg 50¢ | $27 | $54 | +$27 | 34% 95-187 (282) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Montserratavg 40.2¢ | $38.38 | $43.76 | +$28.43 | 49% 1883-1987 (3870) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Nicaraguaavg 47¢ | $47.47 | — | -$47.47 | 56% 426-340 (766) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Montserratavg 59.5¢ | $16.99 | $28.55 | +$11.56 | 37% 841-1416 (2257) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Montserratavg 47¢ | $8.93 | $19 | +$10.07 | 36% 911-1587 (2498) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Montserratavg 49¢ | $8 | $16.32 | +$8.32 | 36% 883-1569 (2452) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Nicaraguaavg 55¢ | $10 | — | -$10 | 39% 406-629 (1035) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Nicaraguaavg 50¢ | $2.5 | — | -$2.5 | 43% 920-1244 (2164) |
VA Vampiro1CTR<$100 | Nicaraguaavg 40¢ | $5.66 | — | +$0.42 | 83% 183-37 (220) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR<$100 | Nicaraguaavg 50¢ | $78 | — | +$0 | 73% 119-43 (162) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Montserratavg 50¢ | $50 | — | +$0 | 53% 1186-1032 (2218) |
Invested
$3,582.23
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$343.42
Record
50%
3544-3611 (7155)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,909.99
Value
—
PnL
$-2.9K
Record
15%
14-81 (95)
Invested
$1,145.61
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
37%
926-1560 (2486)
Invested
$1,103.51
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$328.27
Record
54%
2013-1746 (3759)
Invested
$255.45
Value
$838.1
PnL
+$582.65
Record
36%
893-1601 (2494)
Invested
$76.06
Value
$152.12
PnL
+$76.06
Record
3%
13-383 (396)
poshposhARB<$100Invested
$119.49
Value
$70
PnL
-$49.49
Record
48%
1014-1101 (2115)
Both legs:
Invested
$27
Value
$54
PnL
+$27
Record
34%
95-187 (282)
Invested
$38.38
Value
$43.76
PnL
+$28.43
Record
49%
1883-1987 (3870)
Invested
$47.47
Value
—
PnL
-$47.47
Record
56%
426-340 (766)
Invested
$16.99
Value
$28.55
PnL
+$11.56
Record
37%
841-1416 (2257)
Invested
$8.93
Value
$19
PnL
+$10.07
Record
36%
911-1587 (2498)
Invested
$8
Value
$16.32
PnL
+$8.32
Record
36%
883-1569 (2452)
Invested
$10
Value
—
PnL
-$10
Record
39%
406-629 (1035)
Invested
$2.5
Value
—
PnL
-$2.5
Record
43%
920-1244 (2164)
Invested
$5.66
Value
—
PnL
+$0.42
Record
83%
183-37 (220)
Invested
$78
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
73%
119-43 (162)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$50
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
1186-1032 (2218)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Flaznorp
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115
CTRNicaragua — $0
MadridTime
Montserrat — $2.3K
GoalLineGhost
Montserrat — $1.4K
Venusian
Montserrat — $838.1
rabbitfoot1
Montserrat — $152.12
poshposh
ARBArbitrage — excluded
biying99999
Montserrat — $54
ferdinand2
Montserrat — $43.76
LeLynxMalynx
CTRNicaragua — $0