Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Will Nicaragua win on 2026-11-13?
Resolved Yes. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
38
No 53%
$14.0K
$-6.7K
Smart Money Signal
19 of 38 top traders (50%)19 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115 | Yesavg 39¢ | $3.9K | $10.0K | +$6.1K | 15% 14-81 (95) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 47¢ | $12.4K | — | $-12.4K | 50% 3544-3611 (7155) |
PA pagliacci4 | Yesavg 94.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$63.44 | 65% 60-32 (92) |
 lma0o0o0o | Yesavg 40¢ | $379.2 | $948 | +$568.8 | 54% 38-33 (71) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 30.7¢ | $812.93 | — | -$812.93 | 54% 2013-1746 (3759) |
TO topdogbigboi | Yesavg 74.9¢ | $532.19 | $520.43 | -$11.76 | 37% 841-1416 (2257) |
NO NotJump | Yesavg 40¢ | $121.91 | $304.9 | +$182.99 | 53% 750-672 (1422) |
 poshposh | Yesavg 81.5¢ | $201.37 | $225.85 | +$24.48 | 48% 1014-1101 (2115) |
 dips. | Yesavg 65.7¢ | $253.28 | $220 | +$105.24 | 47% 877-973 (1850) |
 RN1 | Yesavg 30¢ | $66.91 | $214.14 | +$147.23 | 56% 5073-4021 (9094) |
 Secondhandvinyl | Yesavg 92.6¢ | $195.34 | $211.01 | +$15.67 | 74% 207-71 (278) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Yesavg 73¢ | $56.66 | $41.81 | -$14.85 | 37% 926-1560 (2486) |
 tradecraftCTR | Noavg 50.7¢ | $172.22 | — | -$172.22 | 28% 298-748 (1046) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Noavg 11¢ | $97.79 | — | -$97.79 | 36% 911-1587 (2498) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Yesavg 65.9¢ | $20 | $30.36 | +$10.36 | 39% 406-629 (1035) |
US User7429<$100 | Yesavg 65¢ | $19.43 | $29.89 | +$10.46 | 39% 296-462 (758) |
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $9.4 | — | -$9.4 | 44% 343-445 (788) |
FE ferdinand2CTR | Noavg 51.9¢ | $214.09 | — | -$135.34 | 49% 1883-1987 (3870) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Yesavg 73¢ | $5.28 | $7.23 | +$1.95 | 36% 893-1601 (2494) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Yesavg 75¢ | $4.28 | $5.65 | +$1.37 | 53% 6888-6032 (12920) |
HY hydra1248<$100 | Yesavg 73¢ | $4.14 | $5.67 | +$1.53 | 76% 165-53 (218) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 27¢ | $18.95 | — | -$18.95 | 56% 426-340 (766) |
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100 | Noavg 59.2¢ | $31.05 | — | -$31.05 | 48% 465-495 (960) |
SU suitcase6628CTR | Noavg 14¢ | $103.24 | — | +$14.26 | 64% 535-298 (833) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Noavg 32.4¢ | $32.12 | — | -$10.12 | 45% 712-885 (1597) |
Invested
$3,899.99
Value
$10.0K
PnL
+$6.1K
Record
15%
14-81 (95)
Invested
$12,441.22
Value
—
PnL
$-12.4K
Record
50%
3544-3611 (7155)
Invested
$1,179.79
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$63.44
Record
65%
60-32 (92)
lma0o0o0oInvested
$379.2
Value
$948
PnL
+$568.8
Record
54%
38-33 (71)
Invested
$812.93
Value
—
PnL
-$812.93
Record
54%
2013-1746 (3759)
Invested
$532.19
Value
$520.43
PnL
-$11.76
Record
37%
841-1416 (2257)
Invested
$121.91
Value
$304.9
PnL
+$182.99
Record
53%
750-672 (1422)
poshposhInvested
$201.37
Value
$225.85
PnL
+$24.48
Record
48%
1014-1101 (2115)
dips.Invested
$253.28
Value
$220
PnL
+$105.24
Record
47%
877-973 (1850)
RN1Invested
$66.91
Value
$214.14
PnL
+$147.23
Record
56%
5073-4021 (9094)
SecondhandvinylInvested
$195.34
Value
$211.01
PnL
+$15.67
Record
74%
207-71 (278)
Invested
$56.66
Value
$41.81
PnL
-$14.85
Record
37%
926-1560 (2486)
tradecraftCTRInvested
$172.22
Value
—
PnL
-$172.22
Record
28%
298-748 (1046)
Invested
$97.79
Value
—
PnL
-$97.79
Record
36%
911-1587 (2498)
Invested
$20
Value
$30.36
PnL
+$10.36
Record
39%
406-629 (1035)
Invested
$19.43
Value
$29.89
PnL
+$10.46
Record
39%
296-462 (758)
Invested
$9.4
Value
—
PnL
-$9.4
Record
44%
343-445 (788)
Invested
$214.09
Value
—
PnL
-$135.34
Record
49%
1883-1987 (3870)
Invested
$5.28
Value
$7.23
PnL
+$1.95
Record
36%
893-1601 (2494)
Invested
$4.28
Value
$5.65
PnL
+$1.37
Record
53%
6888-6032 (12920)
Invested
$4.14
Value
$5.67
PnL
+$1.53
Record
76%
165-53 (218)
Invested
$18.95
Value
—
PnL
-$18.95
Record
56%
426-340 (766)
Invested
$31.05
Value
—
PnL
-$31.05
Record
48%
465-495 (960)
Invested
$103.24
Value
—
PnL
+$14.26
Record
64%
535-298 (833)
Invested
$32.12
Value
—
PnL
-$10.12
Record
45%
712-885 (1597)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115
Yes — $10.0K
Flaznorp
CTRNo — $0
pagliacci4
Yes — $1.2K
lma0o0o0o
Yes — $948
GoalLineGhost
CTRNo — $0
topdogbigboi
Yes — $520.43
NotJump
Yes — $304.9
poshposh
Yes — $225.85
dips.
Yes — $220
RN1
Yes — $214.14