Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Over — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Over
Saint-Martin vs. El Salvador: O/U 1.5
Resolved Over. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Over. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
15
Over 50%
1 arb excluded
$732.79
$297.42
Smart Money Signal
8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO topdogbigboi | Overavg 56.8¢ | $215.06 | $353.64 | +$138.58 | 37% 819-1385 (2204) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 83.4¢ | $146.47 | $175.58 | +$29.1 | 54% 2013-1746 (3759) |
 poshposh<$100 | Overavg 59.8¢ | $43.06 | $71.98 | +$28.92 | 48% 1014-1100 (2114) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Underavg 18.7¢ | $107.56 | $39.59 | -$67.97 | 50% 3526-3585 (7111) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 78¢ | $30.88 | $39.59 | +$8.71 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 18.7¢ | $76.68 | — | -$76.68 | |
 dips.<$100 | Overavg 88¢ | $52.37 | $57 | +$4.63 | 47% 860-963 (1823) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Overavg 83¢ | $18.26 | $22 | +$3.74 | 45% 706-873 (1579) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Overavg 88¢ | $7.04 | $8 | +$0.96 | 39% 406-629 (1035) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Overavg 78¢ | $3.9 | $5 | +$1.1 | 43% 915-1235 (2150) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Underavg 17¢ | $15.61 | — | -$15.61 | 53% 6885-6020 (12905) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 19.8¢ | $12.07 | — | -$12.07 | 36% 890-1596 (2486) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 18.3¢ | $9.57 | — | -$9.57 | 36% 910-1584 (2494) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 19.5¢ | $9.84 | — | -$9.84 | 36% 879-1566 (2445) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 17.7¢ | $8.31 | — | -$8.31 | 37% 924-1557 (2481) |
SM smithagentCTR<$100 | Underavg 11.2¢ | $2.53 | — | -$2.53 | 44% 599-749 (1348) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 22¢ | $1.43 | — | -$1.43 | 35% 424-772 (1196) |
BE Betyourself | Overavg 40¢ | $100 | — | +$149.75 | 96% 26-1 (27) |
Invested
$215.06
Value
$353.64
PnL
+$138.58
Record
37%
819-1385 (2204)
Invested
$146.47
Value
$175.58
PnL
+$29.1
Record
54%
2013-1746 (3759)
poshposh<$100Invested
$43.06
Value
$71.98
PnL
+$28.92
Record
48%
1014-1100 (2114)
Invested
$107.56
Value
$39.59
PnL
-$67.97
Record
50%
3526-3585 (7111)
Both legs:
dips.<$100Invested
$52.37
Value
$57
PnL
+$4.63
Record
47%
860-963 (1823)
Invested
$18.26
Value
$22
PnL
+$3.74
Record
45%
706-873 (1579)
Invested
$7.04
Value
$8
PnL
+$0.96
Record
39%
406-629 (1035)
Invested
$3.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.1
Record
43%
915-1235 (2150)
Invested
$15.61
Value
—
PnL
-$15.61
Record
53%
6885-6020 (12905)
Invested
$12.07
Value
—
PnL
-$12.07
Record
36%
890-1596 (2486)
Invested
$9.57
Value
—
PnL
-$9.57
Record
36%
910-1584 (2494)
Invested
$9.84
Value
—
PnL
-$9.84
Record
36%
879-1566 (2445)
Invested
$8.31
Value
—
PnL
-$8.31
Record
37%
924-1557 (2481)
Invested
$2.53
Value
—
PnL
-$2.53
Record
44%
599-749 (1348)
Invested
$1.43
Value
—
PnL
-$1.43
Record
35%
424-772 (1196)
Invested
$100
Value
—
PnL
+$149.75
Record
96%
26-1 (27)