Will Saint-Martin win on 2026-11-13?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 88¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$36.43

Smart Money Entry

89.6¢ → 87.5¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,085

Combined PnL-$50.47

Yes4 traders

Total Value$390.98

Total Shares3,103

Combined PnL+$14.04

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 90.1¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$49.8	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 13.2¢	$165.14	$156.05	-$9.1	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
VE Venusian	Noavg 86.8¢	$124.26	$124.31	+$0.06	34% 735-1404 (2139)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR	Yesavg 9.8¢	$85.44	$104.95	+$19.51	50% 118-117 (235)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.1¢	$89.76	$96.79	+$7.03	46% 781-902 (1683)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 88¢	$91.68	$90.64	-$1.04	36% 761-1361 (2122)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 86.4¢	$67.09	$67.57	+$0.48	36% 326-587 (913)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.2¢	$36.59	$33.19	-$3.4	43% 808-1065 (1873)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 90¢	$5	$4.83	-$0.17	35% 749-1385 (2134)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,705.45

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$49.8

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$165.14

Value

$156.05

PnL

-$9.1

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

Venusian

Invested

$124.26

Value

$124.31

PnL

+$0.06

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR

Yes

Invested

$85.44

Value

$104.95

PnL

+$19.51

Record

50%

118-117 (235)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$89.76

Value

$96.79

PnL

+$7.03

Record

46%

781-902 (1683)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$91.68

Value

$90.64

PnL

-$1.04

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$67.09

Value

$67.57

PnL

+$0.48

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.59

Value

$33.19

PnL

-$3.4

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

Value

$4.83

PnL

-$0.17

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.