Curaçao vs. Panama: O/U 2.5
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 94¢ · $253 held · ended Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 44%
$252.62
-$19.19
73.2¢ → 93.5¢
+28% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
-33 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU suntori | Underavg 88¢ | $104.76 | $103.57 | -$1.19 | 46% 1805-2097 (3902) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $54 | $88 | +$34 | 52% 881-800 (1681) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Overavg 32.7¢ | $78.66 | $31.29 | -$47.37 | 48% 703-766 (1469) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Overavg 11¢ | $11 | $13 | +$2 | 53% 6404-5641 (12045) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 86¢ | $9.38 | $8.92 | -$0.45 | 51% 2892-2823 (5715) |
 dips.<$100 | Underavg 80¢ | $6.58 | $5.21 | -$1.37 | 46% 622-743 (1365) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Overavg 34.7¢ | $4.72 | $1.77 | -$2.95 | 44% 496-624 (1120) |
DV dv-pmCTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $2.1 | $0.65 | -$1.45 | 38% 15-24 (39) |
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100 | Overavg 39¢ | $0.61 | $0.2 | -$0.41 | 51% 108-103 (211) |
Invested
$104.76
Value
$103.57
PnL
-$1.19
Record
46%
1805-2097 (3902)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$54
Value
$88
PnL
+$34
Record
52%
881-800 (1681)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$78.66
Value
$31.29
PnL
-$47.37
Record
48%
703-766 (1469)
Invested
$11
Value
$13
PnL
+$2
Record
53%
6404-5641 (12045)
Invested
$9.38
Value
$8.92
PnL
-$0.45
Record
51%
2892-2823 (5715)
dips.<$100Invested
$6.58
Value
$5.21
PnL
-$1.37
Record
46%
622-743 (1365)
Invested
$4.72
Value
$1.77
PnL
-$2.95
Record
44%
496-624 (1120)
Invested
$2.1
Value
$0.65
PnL
-$1.45
Record
38%
15-24 (39)
Invested
$0.61
Value
$0.2
PnL
-$0.41
Record
51%
108-103 (211)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.