Curaçao vs. Panama: O/U 1.5

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 83¢ · $864 held · ended Nov 13

Over18¢Under82¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

Total Value

$863.88

Combined PnL

$253.46

Smart Money Entry

32.6¢ → 82.5¢

+153% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over18%

Under83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$693.89

Total Shares1,123

Combined PnL+$327.7

Over4 traders

Total Value$169.98

Total Shares476

Combined PnL-$74.24

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-33 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 28.7¢	$156.28	$326.9	+$170.63	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
MO mouzsynapse	Underavg 27¢	$55.56	$127.58	+$72.02	38% 73-118 (191)
poshposhCTR	Overavg 44.2¢	$123.53	$77.64	-$45.89	48% 703-766 (1469)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 29¢	$33.54	$71.71	+$38.17	34% 685-1328 (2013)
CC ccllar<$100	Underavg 47.7¢	$35.04	$53.64	+$18.6	43% 37-50 (87)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Underavg 62¢	$53.38	$51.66	-$1.72	34% 362-700 (1062)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$59.49	$47.59	-$11.9	46% 622-743 (1365)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 28¢	$21	$46.5	+$25.5	55% 275-224 (499)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Overavg 50.6¢	$47.42	$24.75	-$15.45	44% 496-624 (1120)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$21	$20	-$1	53% 6404-5641 (12045)
PA pauleta23<$100	Underavg 57¢	$10	$12.81	+$2.81	36% 320-570 (890)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 28¢	$1.4	$3.1	+$1.7	42% 719-993 (1712)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$156.28

Value

$326.9

PnL

+$170.63

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

mouzsynapse

Under

Invested

$55.56

Value

$127.58

PnL

+$72.02

Record

38%

73-118 (191)

poshposhCTR

Over

Invested

$123.53

Value

$77.64

PnL

-$45.89

Record

48%

703-766 (1469)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$33.54

Value

$71.71

PnL

+$38.17

Record

34%

685-1328 (2013)

ccllar<$100

Under

Invested

$35.04

Value

$53.64

PnL

+$18.6

Record

43%

37-50 (87)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Under

Invested

$53.38

Value

$51.66

PnL

-$1.72

Record

34%

362-700 (1062)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$59.49

Value

$47.59

PnL

-$11.9

Record

46%

622-743 (1365)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$21

Value

$46.5

PnL

+$25.5

Record

55%

275-224 (499)

lryyyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$47.42

Value

$24.75

PnL

-$15.45

Record

44%

496-624 (1120)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21

Value

$20

PnL

-$1

Record

53%

6404-5641 (12045)

pauleta23<$100

Under

Invested

$10

Value

$12.81

PnL

+$2.81

Record

36%

320-570 (890)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$1.4

Value

$3.1

PnL

+$1.7

Record

42%

719-993 (1712)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 83%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-33 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.