Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (60%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Curaçao vs. Panama: O/U 0.5

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (82%) · Under at 41¢ · $651 held · ended Nov 13

Over60¢Under40¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 82%

Total Value

$650.86

Combined PnL

$131.7

Smart Money Entry

21.5¢ → 40.5¢

+88% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Over 60%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over60%

Under41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$572.64

Total Shares1,941

Combined PnL+$130.15

Over2 traders

Total Value$78.23

Total Shares84

Combined PnL+$1.55

Under — 82%Over — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 78% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Under 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 17.3¢	$213.34	$276.41	+$63.07	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
dips.CTR	Underavg 29¢	$101.54	$111.58	+$22.76	46% 622-743 (1365)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Underavg 24.5¢	$60.94	$75.33	+$25.53	42% 419-573 (992)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Underavg 35.7¢	$57.07	$59.93	+$2.87	34% 362-700 (1062)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 66.1¢	$57.17	$55.25	-$1.92	48% 703-766 (1469)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$9.56	$24.86	+$15.3	36% 719-1303 (2022)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 77¢	$19.5	$22.97	+$3.47	46% 1805-2097 (3902)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$10	$11.5	+$1.5	36% 320-570 (890)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 29.5¢	$8.54	$8.97	+$0.43	44% 496-624 (1120)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Underavg 32¢	$4.13	$2.97	-$1.16	62% 1377-852 (2229)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$1.23	$1.09	-$0.14	42% 719-993 (1712)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$213.34

Value

$276.41

PnL

+$63.07

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

dips.CTR

Under

Invested

$101.54

Value

$111.58

PnL

+$22.76

Record

46%

622-743 (1365)

smithagentCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$60.94

Value

$75.33

PnL

+$25.53

Record

42%

419-573 (992)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$57.07

Value

$59.93

PnL

+$2.87

Record

34%

362-700 (1062)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$57.17

Value

$55.25

PnL

-$1.92

Record

48%

703-766 (1469)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.56

Value

$24.86

PnL

+$15.3

Record

36%

719-1303 (2022)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$19.5

Value

$22.97

PnL

+$3.47

Record

46%

1805-2097 (3902)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10

Value

$11.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

36%

320-570 (890)

lryyyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.54

Value

$8.97

PnL

+$0.43

Record

44%

496-624 (1120)

shiifooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.13

Value

$2.97

PnL

-$1.16

Record

62%

1377-852 (2229)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.23

Value

$1.09

PnL

-$0.14

Record

42%

719-993 (1712)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 41%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Over 60%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 78% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Under 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.