Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Panama win on 2026-11-12?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 49¢ · $221 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 38%
$220.74
$10.01
44¢ → 48.5¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+5 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 45¢ | $102.92 | $109.15 | +$6.23 | 51% 2763-2694 (5457) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $37.23 | $36.87 | -$0.37 | 23% 193-656 (849) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $25.33 | $30.4 | +$5.07 | 5% 15-276 (291) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $30.25 | $29.93 | -$0.33 | 59% 3584-2449 (6033) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $5.58 | $5.52 | -$0.05 | 30% 193-457 (650) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 48¢ | $4.4 | $4.54 | +$0.14 | 55% 1738-1449 (3187) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $2.95 | $2.55 | -$0.4 | 42% 662-917 (1579) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $2.06 | $1.78 | -$0.28 | 53% 852-766 (1618) |
Invested
$102.92
Value
$109.15
PnL
+$6.23
Record
51%
2763-2694 (5457)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$37.23
Value
$36.87
PnL
-$0.37
Record
23%
193-656 (849)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$25.33
Value
$30.4
PnL
+$5.07
Record
5%
15-276 (291)
Invested
$30.25
Value
$29.93
PnL
-$0.33
Record
59%
3584-2449 (6033)
Invested
$5.58
Value
$5.52
PnL
-$0.05
Record
30%
193-457 (650)
Invested
$4.4
Value
$4.54
PnL
+$0.14
Record
55%
1738-1449 (3187)
Invested
$2.95
Value
$2.55
PnL
-$0.4
Record
42%
662-917 (1579)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$2.06
Value
$1.78
PnL
-$0.28
Record
53%
852-766 (1618)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.