Will Curaçao win on 2026-11-12?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 77¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
$45.87
72.9¢ → 77¢
+6% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI Limousin | Noavg 71¢ | $526.33 | $563.4 | +$37.07 | 33% 620-1253 (1873) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $348.04 | $311.01 | -$37.03 | 55% 1738-1449 (3187) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 76¢ | $169.04 | $169.04 | -$0 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 29¢ | $179 | $141.97 | -$37.03 | |
GC GC-P | Noavg 76¢ | $170.69 | $172.94 | +$2.25 | 30% 193-457 (650) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 76¢ | $154.84 | $156.88 | +$2.04 | 59% 3584-2449 (6033) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $42.89 | $45.73 | +$2.84 | 51% 2763-2694 (5457) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $45 | $45.6 | +$0.6 | 47% 564-628 (1192) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $20.49 | $20.76 | +$0.27 | 54% 244-207 (451) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $11.53 | $12.34 | +$0.81 | 42% 662-917 (1579) |
Invested
$526.33
Value
$563.4
PnL
+$37.07
Record
33%
620-1253 (1873)
Invested
$348.04
Value
$311.01
PnL
-$37.03
Record
55%
1738-1449 (3187)
Both legs:
Invested
$170.69
Value
$172.94
PnL
+$2.25
Record
30%
193-457 (650)
Invested
$154.84
Value
$156.88
PnL
+$2.04
Record
59%
3584-2449 (6033)
Invested
$42.89
Value
$45.73
PnL
+$2.84
Record
51%
2763-2694 (5457)
Invested
$45
Value
$45.6
PnL
+$0.6
Record
47%
564-628 (1192)
Invested
$20.49
Value
$20.76
PnL
+$0.27
Record
54%
244-207 (451)
Invested
$11.53
Value
$12.34
PnL
+$0.81
Record
42%
662-917 (1579)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.